NVIDIA Eyes $225 as Price Rebounds Ahead of GPU Conference: What’s Next?

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NVIDIA Price Rebounds Ahead of GPU Technology Conference With $225 in Sight

NVIDIA’s stock price is trying to regain upward momentum after a significant drop in early March briefly stalled its previous progress. On March 2nd, the stock fell from around $197 to a low of $174 as general market uncertainty and global events caused many tech stocks to decline.

After a recent dip, investors have started buying NVIDIA stock again. On March 4th, the price reached a high of around $184 during the day and closed at $183. Early trading on March 5th saw prices between $182 and $183. This recovery brings the stock price close to levels that could trigger further gains, potentially pushing it back towards $225. However, more investment from larger institutions is needed to ensure this upward trend continues.

NVIDIA Stabilizes Above Key Institutional Price Level

Nvidia’s stock price recovery from $174 has helped it reach a key level watched by many investors: its monthly volume-weighted average price.

VWAP, or Volume Weighted Average Price, shows the average price a stock traded at over a specific time, taking into account how many shares were traded at each price. Many large investment firms trade around this price level, so if the price rises back above the VWAP, it can suggest that selling pressure is easing and these firms are becoming more confident.

NVIDIA’s stock price has risen above its monthly average price, indicating that buyers are currently leading the market. In the past, when the price has recovered above this level, it typically led to gains of around 7% to 8% over the following weeks.

Since regaining its VWAP level, NVIDIA’s stock has only increased by about 2%. This suggests there may be further potential for price increases.

The recovery is happening at a significant time, just before Nvidia’s major GPU Technology Conference (GTC) from March 16th to 19th. GTC is a key event for the AI industry, where Nvidia usually reveals its latest advancements in AI technology and future hardware plans.

Join us online or in person to hear where we are and where we’re headed:

— NVIDIA (@nvidia) March 5, 2026

Investors are especially interested in seeing how Nvidia’s new Blackwell chips perform. These chips are designed for the powerful computers used in data centers and are a key part of the company’s future. If the recent positive trend in the market continues, a significant technical breakthrough could happen soon.

50-Day Moving Average Could Trigger Nvidia’s Next Rally Phase

Nvidia’s stock price is currently just below a significant short-term trend line, trading less than 2% below its 50-day moving average of around $186.

If the price clearly closes above this level, it suggests the recent recovery is gaining strength. We saw a similar pattern in mid-February – when Nvidia rose above its moving average, the stock quickly increased by 7%, reaching a high point shortly after.

The stock’s recent rally lost steam after the earnings report, but a similar pattern is developing now. If the price rises above its moving average, it could draw in more buyers and potentially reach the next resistance level around $192. This price point also corresponds with a key area identified in a bullish chart pattern called an inverse head and shoulders.

Even after briefly falling to $174 on March 2nd, NVIDIA’s stock price has maintained its overall upward trend. Now that it’s starting to recover, reaching $192 is an important target. Successfully breaking through that level will likely depend on positive momentum, indicated by a rising moving average.

Institutional Momentum Still Needs Confirmation

Nvidia’s stock price has recovered to its average price based on trading volume, but large investors haven’t yet fully signaled their agreement with this upward trend.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator, which measures buying and selling pressure, is still showing negative momentum and remains below zero. It’s also trending downwards, continuing to fall from highs seen since the end of December.

This highlights a key difference, not in the price itself, but between two indicators. While the price has bounced back above its VWAP, showing increasing institutional buying, the CMF indicates that the volume of that buying hasn’t increased significantly yet.

The price has stopped falling for now, but we still need to see more buying from big investors to keep it going. We saw a similar situation with Nvidia back in late February when it tried to climb above $197. Positive news briefly helped the stock break through a key resistance level, but a lack of investment from institutions ultimately ended that upward trend.

The rally lost momentum because the Cumulative Money Flow (CMF) stayed below zero and its trendline, indicating a lack of strong buying pressure from institutional investors to keep the price moving upward.

As a researcher, I’m watching the CMF closely. For this current recovery to really gain momentum, I need to see it move above both its downward trendline and the zero level. If it does, that would suggest increasing interest from institutional investors, which would align with the positive changes I’m already seeing in the price action.

NVIDIA Price Target of $225 Surfaces, But Key Resistances Need to Break

If demand for Nvidia stock keeps increasing, the next hurdle will be breaking through the $192 resistance level. This is about 5.4% higher than the current price. If it breaks through, the stock could then move towards its previous high of around $197.

Beyond that point, the path toward higher targets opens quickly.

If Nvidia’s stock price stays above $197, it could climb to $211 and potentially reach $225, which fits with the expected price movement based on current trends. With a strong upward surge, the price could even go as high as $236.

Despite the recent gains, there’s still a chance things could go wrong if the recovery loses momentum. Currently, the stock is finding support around $176. However, if Nvidia drops below $170, the overall technical picture will become less optimistic. A move below $169 would suggest the current positive trend is over and that sellers are now in charge.

Nvidia’s recent recovery suggests it might try to reach $225 again. However, whether it succeeds will likely depend on whether large investors start buying more shares in the next few days.

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2026-03-05 16:35