As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for digging beneath the surface of digital platforms, I find myself intrigued by the buzz surrounding Polymarket. Having navigated through the labyrinth of DeFi and predictions markets, I’ve learned to trust neither hype nor numbers at face value.
Worldwide interest is growing towards Polymarket, a predictions market operating on the Polygon network. This platform, which doesn’t require its own token, ranks among the busiest decentralized apps (dapps) out there. Moreover, it has caught the eye of pollsters who are keeping a close watch as they follow the ongoing U.S. presidential campaign.
In the fiercely competitive election race, the incumbent vice president, Kamala Harris, is going head-to-head with Donald Trump. After being defeated by Joe Biden in 2020, Trump is making a power play for control.
Is Polymarket Misleading Punters?
Over the last few days, Polymarket shows that Donald Trump is now more likely to win, with a predicted probability of 61%, while Joe Biden’s running mate, Kamala Harris, has a lower chance at 39%. In simpler terms, there’s a higher likelihood that Donald Trump will emerge victorious according to the data on Polymarket.
It’s noteworthy that the total wagered amount in the 2024 Presidential Election market surpasses $2 billion. Despite this substantial figure, a financial analyst has expressed concerns that Polymarket might be deceiving users by withholding the actual open interest numbers.
In Polymarket’s various markets, open interest refers to the overall count of active contracts. This figure serves as an indicator, helping us assess market liquidity and investor enthusiasm.
As a researcher, I’ve estimated that the open interest for this project stands approximately at $200 million, marking a significant increase from around $100 million over the past 30 days. Shifting gears to DeFiLlama, the platform currently has a Total Value Locked (TVL) of merely $211 million, which encompasses the management of all active dapps and other markets.
The figure we’re looking at is significantly lower compared to the reported $2 billion volume for the Presidential Election Winner 2024, as of October 18th. However, the Total Value Locked (TVL) in Polymarket stands at approximately $211 million, which is close to its record high and has increased substantially from around $50 million in April. Despite this impressive growth, the depth of liquidity in the prediction market is not as substantial as anticipated.
Transparency Questions Emerge
The analyst who identified this inconsistency is strongly criticizing the developers of Polymarket for prioritizing volume over open interest, claiming it’s dishonest. This observation suggests a potential lack of transparency that could later complicate users’ ability to effectively assess and manage risks when making bets on Polymarket.
On November 4th, Americans will visit the polling stations to elect their new president, as Joe Biden has decided to step down from his position. Following this event, the largest market operated by Polymarket on the Polygon platform will cease operations, and remunerations will be allocated based on the election’s outcome.
Up until now, the bettor known as “markitzero” who wagered on Harris to win has amassed more than 4.5 million shares, but finds themselves in a losing position at the moment. Conversely, “Fredi9999”, a supporter of Trump, holds over 20.2 million shares in the market and is currently profiting from their bet.
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2024-10-19 01:11