As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of market observation under my belt, I must say that the recent turn of events in the US Presidential Election 2024 has been quite intriguing. The Polymarket data’s prediction of Trump’s win was not only accurate but also remarkably precise, giving a clear indication of the voter sentiment.
In the event of Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, there is a strong possibility that the Republican party could secure a majority of congressional seats following their success in the Senate. The Polymarket data has provided some intriguing insights regarding winning probabilities, as it accurately predicted Trump’s win previously. Notably, just before the election results were announced, the charts showed a 99% likelihood of Trump’s victory and only a 1% chance for Kamala Harris.
Additionally, there’s apprehension among investors regarding the crypto market’s stability following the election outcomes, due to their worry about a potential market collapse.
Polymarket Odds Indicates The Republican Party’s Win In The House
It’s been found that Polymarket is the go-to site for wagers on the U.S. presidential election. The Trump vs. Harris polling data gives a clear glimpse into voter feelings about the upcoming presidency. While Trump initially had the upper hand in the odds, Harris occasionally took the lead as well. A substantial amount of money, over $1 billion, has been invested by Donald supporters, with several large whales participating. Similarly, $950 million has been wagered on Kamala.
Currently, attention shifts towards the number of seats secured by each political party relative to the Congress, following the Republicans’ capture of the U.S. Senate leadership position on Tuesday night. This marks a significant milestone, as it’s the first time in four years they have gained control of these major positions.
According to the latest information from Polymarket X, the likelihood of the Republicans taking control of the House is now at 92%, which suggests a potential Republican party sweep. Moreover, they predicted a 99% chance of Donald Trump being re-elected as president, a 99% probability of the Senate remaining under Republican control, and a 92% possibility that the Republicans will win the House.
Odds Republicans win the House just hit 92%.
We’re going to see a Republican sweep.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 6, 2024
Currently, as per the New York Times report, the Republicans are ahead with 193 victories compared to the Democrats’ 173 in the race for controlling the House. The team that reaches the required 218 seats first will emerge victorious, but it may take several days or weeks to accurately determine the winner due to ongoing calculations.
How Will Donald Trump’s Win Impact Crypto Market?
As I write this, it appears that at the Associated Press tally, Donald Trump of the Republican Party has garnered 69,87,748 votes (approximately 51.2%) while Kamala Harris has secured 63,93,836 votes (around 47.4%). However, despite Harris’ efforts, she seems to be falling short in bridging the significant gap between them. Trump’s apparent win is not only reflected in the voting results but also in the crypto market, as Bitcoin reached a new All-Time High of $75,361.09 merely two hours ago and is now aiming for the $100k mark.
As a researcher examining the relationship between U.S. elections and cryptocurrency market performance, I’ve noticed an intriguing pattern: it appears that significant events in U.S. elections can have a positive impact on the crypto market. Specifically, I’ve observed a notable surge in the market both before and after the election results are announced. This trend is reflected in the impressive $238M in crypto donations made during this period, which underscores the excitement among investors regarding the future of our industry.
As a crypto investor, I find this development particularly intriguing. The Bitcoin price seems to be following a bullish trend, and some analysts predict it could reach $100K or even exceed that figure, based on President Trump’s victory. Conversely, some experts suggest that if Vice President Kamala Harris had won, the Bitcoin price might have seen an 8% to 13% correction instead.
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2024-11-06 12:12