Santa’s Stock Shake-Up: Will Bitcoin Beat the Holiday Blues?

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Markets

What to know:

  • Turns out, the S&P 500 has a habit of throwing confetti and rallying in the last week of December plus the first two trading days of January. 🎉
  • If past is prologue, we might see BTC get a bit of Santa’s magic-after suffering more quarters than a poorly run department store in 2022.

Bitcoin, that digital darling often as temperamental as Bertie Wooster’s latest scheming, has endured its bleakest fourth quarter since the days of yore. But fear not, those venerable old Wall Street traditions might just sprinkle a dash of holiday cheer on our crypto crusaders.

What’s the secret? The famous S&P 500’s “Santa rally”-an annual holiday miracle where stocks often ascend during the final five trading days of December and the opening days of January. An encore performance might just give Bitcoin and its brethren a lift, like a jolly old elf with a bag of tricks.

Bullish Santa seasonality

Since the early days of the last century-well, since 2005-the S&P 500 has been more reliable than Aunt Agatha’s fruitcake, gaining 15 out of 20 times during the Santa season with an average return of about 0.58%. Going back to when hats still had feathers, it’s risen 77% of the time, and never snowed in for three consecutive seasons during this period. And despite a couple of recent dips, the trend remains cheerful.

All signs point toward a rally into the new year, which is fantastic news for Bitcoin, especially now that institutional players-those bigwigs with their ETFs-are tightly linked with the stock market. So, a good stock market might just spill some of its holiday spirit into crypto’s sock.

As for Bitcoin’s own Santa moments-well, they’ve been a mixed bag: 2011’s 33% boost, 2016’s 46%, but also a naughty 14% drop in 2014. All told, since the dawn of time (or rather, since 2011), it’s averaged a charming 7.9% gain during the season-a number that’s about as jolly as a Christmas cracker.

Gold, the shining star

Gold’s been the belle of the ball, firing off a stellar 95% return since 2005, with only 2023 giving the investors a minor pout. As we speak, Gold is strutting its stuff above $4,400 an ounce, hinting that Santa’s glittering gift still has plenty of sparkle. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is just a smidgen from its all-time high-about 1.5%-and Bitcoin remains approximately 30% below its peak, sulking in the corner like a deflated balloon.

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2025-12-22 17:30