- Apparently, the magic bottom-finding crystal ball (or whatever metric) thinks Solana is either at or desperately flirting with its market rock bottom. Grab your popcorn. 🍿
- 2024 was basically Solana’s “glow up” for on-chain activity—until Q1 2025 came along and spilled wine on the dress. Classic. 😬
Solana [SOL], everyone’s favorite altcoin with main character energy, is *allegedly* sculpting out a majestic market bottom. Yes, again. The coin has been speed-dating the $115 line for 14 months straight. That’s longer than most of my relationships.
When the price dunked to $100 in April (lowest since February 2024—nostalgia, anyone?), AMBCrypto did its investigative journalism thing and suggested this might be the grand buying opportunity. Someone get them a magnifying glass and a trench coat.
Dormancy: not just for hungover college students. In 2018, it was invented to explain Bitcoin‘s economic mood swings. Turns out, it works for Solana too. Think of it as “coin years wasted per transaction”—but in days. Math is sexy, trust me.
For the curious: Take this dormancy thing, divide by the coins sloshing around the blockchain in a day, and you get… a number. The “dormancy flow” chart above takes market cap and mashes it up with a 365-day average of dormancy, which is the blockchain equivalent of asking, “Are we there yet?” on a really long road trip. It’s supposed to reveal crypto bottoms and whether we’re bullish or just dramatically sighing into our portfolios.
The all-serious 30-day Moving Average of the dormancy flow clocked in at press time right around the levels of August 2023—a quaint era when SOL was $24 and hopes were high, and in December 2020, when you could get a Solana token for the price of a fancy coffee ($2).
SOL Investors: Still Underwater, But Hey, There’s Action!
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): or, “Did You Actually Make Money or Was It All Just Crypto Illusion?” It’s price sold divided by price paid. A value above 1 means you’re a winner; less than 1 and you’re explaining losses to your group chat.
Currently, 30DMA of SOPR is at 0.987 and it’s been sulking under 1 since late February. Market sentiment: about as bullish as a wet sock.
A declining dormancy flow plus a SAD SOPR? Bears everywhere. Still, the 30-day average for number of transactions has been on its own little espresso-fueled hustle. Yes, there was a dramatic February-April slump—Solana really loves a comeback arc—but now activity’s strutting down the runway again.
Is this the long-term bottom? Is Santa real? We can’t confirm. But dropping dormancy flow adds some spice to the theory. Price-wise, the $100-$120 zone is basically Solana’s safe space—its emotional support range.
Also—and this is where it gets fun—the surge in transaction activity compared to the snooze-fest of 2022 and 2023 is a bit of a flex. Maybe investor confidence WILL lead to those “substantial returns” everyone’s tweeting about. Or maybe we’ll just have more memes. Either way, I’m in.
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2025-05-02 00:10