Solana’s 72M SOL Open Interest: Record High, But Why Is the Price Falling?

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Key takeaways:

  • Solana’s futures’ open interest hits record 71.8 million SOL as the market leans bearish.

  • SOL’s weakening technicals indicate a potential pullback toward $120-$150.

Ah, Solana (SOL), that poor soul had one of its worst weeks of 2025. Down 18% in the past seven days, trailing only Hyperliquid among the top 20 crypto assets in losses. It’s like the crypto world’s version of “oops, I did it again.”

The drop puts SOL/USD on track for its lowest weekly candle close since late August, fueling speculation over a push toward the $120 level. At least that’s the hope, right? Or is it despair? Hard to tell with crypto…

CoinGlass data reveals that Solana’s futures open interest (OI) hit a record 71.8 million SOL, valued at $14.5 billion at the time of writing. The perpetual funding rates, which were once negative at -0.0065%, flipped positive to 0.0043%. It’s like someone switched the light on in a room full of over-leveraged traders, but will it be a warm glow or a fiery crash?

Higher open interest and rising funding rates amidst falling prices could result in an over-leveraged market, where the longs get caught with their pants down. Get ready for that rollercoaster, folks. 🎢

The current market structure clearly favors the bears. The net taker volume leans heavily towards sell orders, showing that the sellers are becoming more aggressive. This isn’t your usual “just a little bearish” vibe – it’s like the market is ready to flip the table.

Meanwhile, spot CVD dropped lower, suggesting that the sell-off is mostly spot-driven. And guess what? That’s more fuel for the bears. 🐻

Data from DefiLlama also shows weakening network metrics. Solana’s DeFi protocols have seen a 16% decrease in total value locked and an 11% dip in daily transactions over the last seven days. It’s like Solana’s network took a nap, and its competition from other layer-1 blockchains is happily stealing the spotlight.

As CryptoMoon reported, Solana’s declining network activity isn’t exactly a recipe for price gains. It’s more like trying to make a cake without flour – something’s missing!

SOL price technicals: Will Solana revisit $120?

Solana’s price action between August 2 and September 25 has formed a developing inverted V-shaped pattern on the daily chart. It’s like a drama series where the plot twists every other minute, and you’re just waiting to see if the main character (SOL) makes a heroic comeback or a tragic fall.

Bears have already booked profits during this rally, which resulted in a sharp correction to the current levels. It’s like they saw the ship sinking and jumped out early. Smart move, or just lucky?

The relative strength index (RSI) has sloped downwards from 69 to 37 since September 18, indicating increasing bearish momentum. Don’t get too excited though; it’s still not “oversold,” which means there’s room for more drama. 🕵️‍♂️

As the price looks to complete its inverted V-shaped pattern, it could drop further toward the neckline of the pattern around the $155 demand zone, which would represent a 22% price drop from the current levels. That’s a pretty steep cliff, right?

Looking at the weekly chart, a double-top formation hints at a possible return to the $120 neckline, which could mean a 40% loss from current levels. Ouch. Someone pass the bandages.

But wait – don’t start counting SOL out just yet. The bulls might get a chance at a short-term respite. The RSI is now significantly “oversold” on shorter timeframes, which means it could be the bulls’ turn to take the stage. If only they could actually hold the mic without dropping it.

As CryptoMoon reported, if SOL loses support at $200, the price could extend its downtrend towards the $150-$110 range. It’s like a game of musical chairs, but there’s only one chair left and it’s getting further and further away.

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2025-09-25 17:43