A few Ethereum ETF applicants, led by Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, have held talks with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to clarify the details of their planned Ethereum ETF offerings.
Uncertainty Looms Amid Approaching Spot Ethereum ETF Deadline
Geraci called attention to a post from Senior Bloomberg reporter Joe Light, in which he mentioned that the dialogue between Ethereum ETF applicants and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has predominantly been led by the applicants.
It’s commonly accepted now that the agency hasn’t given the essential feedback to help these filers complete their Ethereum ETF products. Consequently, there are concerns that the May 23 approval deadline might not materialize.
Several ETF issuers have met w/ SEC re: spot ether ETF, but according to Barron’s…
The conversations have mainly consisted of the agency providing feedback, leaving companies without essential criticism to perfect their products.
May 23rd deadline quickly approaching.
via @joelight
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) April 8, 2024
Instead of providing feedback on the many proposals from BlackRock, Grayscale, and Bitwise regarding Ethereum ETFs, the agency is soliciting comments on its proposed rule change. To accomplish this, the agency has started a public comment period for certain Ethereum ETF proposals. The three-week window for submitting comments remains open.
Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, joined the discussion and expressed that the SEC’s actions have not altered the likelihood of Ethereum receiving approval. The analyst suggested that the Commission merely needs to give constructive feedback to the applicants in order to move forward with their decisions.
Approval Odds Plunges
Based on the latest betting trends from Polymarket, it seems investors are evenly split on whether the SEC will approve an Ethereum ETF. The data reveals a clear split among bettors, with the probability of approval sitting at approximately 45%.
Balchunas of Bloomingdale’s Analysis has revised his view on the potential approval of an ETH ETF by May. Originally, he predicted a 70% chance, but now believes it’s only 30%, indicating increasing doubt among investors. Seyffart, another senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, is convinced that the SEC’s lack of action regarding Fidelity’s application is not a good sign for the proposed rule change.
Investors are concerned about the “securities” label that the SEC may assign to Ethereum, which could hinder its approval as an exchange-traded fund (ETF). However, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, remains optimistic that a spot Ethereum ETF could still materialize, despite this regulatory hurdle.
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2024-04-09 00:01