Toncoin Price Risks $4 Breakdown as Network Growth Stalls

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As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies, I must admit that the current state of Toncoin is a source of concern. The steep decline in key network metrics, such as transactions per day and on-chain wallet activations, coupled with the tumble of popular tokens within its ecosystem, paints a picture of a struggling ecosystem.

The price of Toncoin has dropped by 44% from its highest point this year, and there’s a possibility it could decline even more. The fall in Toncoin might continue due to the slump of prominent cryptocurrencies within its ecosystem such as Hamster Kombat, Catizen, and Notcoin. Additionally, recent data indicates that important network metrics are either plateauing or worsening.

Toncoin Price Pressured as Network Growth Fades

According to TonStats data, it appears that the Toncoin ecosystem isn’t thriving as expected. For instance, daily transaction volume has significantly decreased, going from more than 16 million in September this year to just 5.6 million currently.

Toncoin Price Risks $4 Breakdown as Network Growth Stalls

It appears that daily on-chain wallet activations have significantly decreased over time. For instance, they were around 650,000 in September, but as of now, they’ve dropped down to approximately 110,000.

Furthermore, the daily production of Toncoins has recently increased to more than 74,000, reaching its highest point in nearly a year. Simultaneously, the rate at which TON tokens are being destroyed through burning has decreased, dropping to around 7,500.

The decrease in TON’s price can be attributed to the performance of popular tap-to-earn and play-to-earn tokens within its ecosystem, such as Hamster Kombat, Notcoin, and Catizen. These tokens have all dropped by more than 50% from their peak values this year, a trend that may persist.

As reported by DefiLlama, the total value locked (TVL) in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) on the TON Blockchain has decreased to approximately $347 million, positioning it as the 21st largest player within the DeFi industry. At its highest point, the TON Blockchain was among the top ten DeFi blockchain networks in the cryptocurrency market.

TON Price Analysis Shows Weak Technicals

Toncoin Price Risks $4 Breakdown as Network Growth Stalls

Toncoin price chart by TradingView

Toncoin’s price reached an all-time high of $8.28 in June, but has since dropped by more than 40%, now sitting at $4.67. Lately, it has developed a “death cross” pattern, where the 200-day and 50-day moving averages have intersected, which historically indicates a potential downtrend in prices for Toncoin and similar assets.

As a crypto investor, I’m observing that the TON price seems to be stabilizing near the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, and it’s just dipping slightly beneath the strong support provided by the Murray Math Lines.

As a crypto investor, I find myself encouraged by the potential formation of a double-bottom pattern around the $4.50 price mark. This pattern, if confirmed, could signal a bullish reversal, as the neckline also sits at $4.50. In other words, this could be a sign that the downward trend might be about to reverse and we could see an uptick in value for my investment. The double-bottom is a well-respected bullish reversal pattern among investors.

If Toncoin’s price drops beneath the double-bottom support at $4.50, it could potentially slip further down to the extremely oversold level of around $4, and then possibly even reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $3.88. This last price point is roughly 15% lower than its current value.

Conversely, if the double-bottom pattern proves effective, it indicates that the TON token price might surge to the neckline at $6.15, representing a potential increase of 31% from its current level.

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2024-11-05 19:24