Trump’s Gas Gambit: Will Cheap Fuel Fuel Bitcoin’s Boom? 🛢️💰

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In a world where the ludicrous has become the norm, BitMEX’s erstwhile maestro, Arthur Hayes, has emerged from the shadows to prophesy the next great ascent of Bitcoin (BTC). With a flourish of his quill, he declares that the fate of the digital darling rests not on the arcane intricacies of blockchain, but on the farcical theater of American politics. A Republican triumph in 2028, he avers, shall unleash a torrent of monetary profligacy-provided, of course, that the plebeians are not roused from their slumber by the specter of rising petrol prices. 🛢️💸

  • Hayes unveils his “10% rule,” a doctrine as arbitrary as it is amusing. 📏
  • He posits that the price of fuel is the barometer of electoral doom. ⛽⚰️
  • The upshot? Trump’s political survival hinges on a loose purse and a tight rein on gasoline, conditions Hayes insists are the very nectar of Bitcoin’s bloom. 🌸💹

In a blog post dripping with the gravitas of a soothsayer, Hayes fixates on the price of American gasoline. Should the national average surge by more than 10% in the three months preceding an election, compared to the halcyon days of January, the political pendulum swings with the inevitability of a clockwork orange. 🕰️🔄

To avert this calamity in 2028, Hayes decrees that Trump must “run the economy hot” without allowing the fuel pumps to become instruments of voter wrath. 🔥⛽

There are two elections that preoccupy the mind of President Trump: the November mid-terms and the 2028 presidential farce. Though he himself is not on the ballot in 2026 and cannot aspire to a third term in 2028, the fealty of his motley crew of acolytes depends on their prospects of reelection. The defections from the MAGA big top are but the result of souring views on future electability, should they continue to dance to Trump’s tune. What stratagem can Trump employ to ensure that the median voter, that fickle beast, shall turn out in November 2026 and 2028 and vote the “right way”? 🎪🐘

A Narrow Path for the Policymakers

Legislators, those hapless souls, must walk a tightrope, expanding credit and nominal GDP while keeping oil prices as docile as a lamb. Should oil prices gallop too swiftly, they risk sending Treasury yields into the stratosphere, unleashing bond market volatility, and forcing politicians to curtail their stimulus-a prospect Hayes believes Trump would rather face a firing squad than entertain. 🪢📉

“The base case is that oil prices remain subdued, if not in outright freefall, and Trump and Buffalo Bill Bessent print money with the abandon of 2020. This is because the market will initially believe that American control of Venezuelan oil shall unleash a deluge of crude, whether or not such a deluge materializes,” Hayes scribbled with a wink. 🇻🇪🛢️

Whether the supply materializes is secondary, he added, to the political imperative of keeping inflation-sensitive voters in a state of blissful ignorance. 😴💤

Hayes pointed to the 10-year Treasury yield and the MOVE Index, that harbinger of bond market volatility, as the canaries in the coal mine. When yields approach 5% and volatility spikes, leveraged financial markets tend to unravel with the drama of a Shakespearean tragedy, forcing policymakers to beat a hasty retreat. He cited last year’s tariff scare-when bond volatility surged and markets sold off-as a cautionary tale of how swiftly political pressure can reverse policy. 🐦⚰️

Bitcoin: The Lone Ranger

Against this backdrop of fiscal folly and monetary madness, Hayes argues that Bitcoin stands apart, a lone ranger in a world of traditional assets. Because all bitcoin miners face the same energy price shifts simultaneously, oil prices matter less directly to Bitcoin than to the fiat markets. Instead, Bitcoin’s price responds primarily to liquidity expansion and currency debasement. 🦸♂️💸

“Nothing stops this train,” Hayes wrote, channeling the spirit of Lyn Alden, as he described a cycle in which deficit spending, Treasury issuance, and central bank bond buying reinforce each other with the inevitability of a Greek tragedy. As the dollar supply swells, he expects Bitcoin-and a select coterie of cryptocurrencies-to soar with the exuberance of a rocket. 🚀🌕

Hayes also outlined his 2026 trading strategy, revealing that his firm, Maelstrom, is operating at near-maximum risk exposure with minimal stablecoin holdings. While continuing to accumulate BTC, he plans to rotate capital into privacy-focused tokens and decentralized finance plays, which he believes will outperform if credit expansion continues. 🌪️🤑

The bottom line, according to Hayes, is that political incentives favor stimulus over restraint, especially in an election cycle. For investors, he says, the macro case is as clear as a bell-stay constructive on risk assets, and stay long Bitcoin. 🔔📈

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2026-01-07 01:54