Trump’s Tariff Tango: Will He or Won’t He? 🤔💰

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So, since April 2, 2025, our buddy Donald Trump has been shaking up global markets like a maraca at a bad wedding. Tariffs here, tariffs there, and oh look, some were even put on hold last Wednesday. Prediction markets? Yeah, they’re buzzing like a beehive on caffeine, with everyone and their mother betting on what Trump will do next. It’s like a reality show, but with more spreadsheets and fewer roses. 🌹

From Pause to Pressure: Trump’s Tariff Moves Fuel Speculation on Polymarket and Kalshi

People are throwing their money around like it’s confetti at a parade, trying to guess where Trump’s tariff rollercoaster is headed. Initially, he rolled out a 10% minimum rate worldwide, with extra penalties for the “major offenders.” You know, the usual suspects. Then, on April 9, he decided to hit the brakes on all tariffs above 10% for 90 days—except for China, of course. Their rate shot up to 125%, then 145% by Friday. Talk about a rollercoaster! 🎢

On Polymarket, traders are giving a 40% chance that Trump will ease tariffs on China before the month is out. That bet has raked in $275,437. Meanwhile, another bet, with $91,465 on the line, says there’s only an 8% chance of lifting those pesky 10% tariffs this month. And get this: there’s a 19% chance he’ll crank those tariffs up to 200% by June. I mean, who doesn’t love a good cliffhanger? 📈

Kalshi is also in on the action, offering bets on when Trump will finally say “enough” to his tariffs against China. Spoiler alert: there’s only a 3% chance of that happening by May 2025. The odds get a little better—18% for June, and a whopping 28% by December. And let’s not forget the bets on export tariffs, which currently sit at a 15% chance of actually happening. It’s like watching a slow-motion train wreck, but with more spreadsheets and fewer injuries. 🚂💥

Trump’s trade chatter is keeping financial markets on their toes, causing historic stock sell-offs, wiping out trillions in market cap, and raising eyebrows about trade wars, inflation, and economic meltdowns. Just another day in paradise, right? 😅

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2025-04-12 20:57