US Gov’t Shutdown: Crypto’s About to Have a Bad Hair Day 💇‍♀️

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Right. So, there’s a distinct possibility – a 66% possibility, to be precise, according to some rather excitable people over at Polymarket – that the American government will effectively decide to have a really long nap starting October 1st. And naturally, this puts a bit of a wobble into things, especially for those shiny digital tokens everyone’s so keen on, otherwise known as crypto. 🙄

Experts, those oracles of financial wisdom, are suggesting a delightful combination of panic selling and eventual… well, not exactly stability, but a return of things getting bought and sold again once someone remembers where the money is. A bit like looking down the back of the sofa, really.

66% Probability of a US Government Shutdown

The chances of Uncle Sam deciding he’s had enough and throwing a governmental tantrum before October 1st are getting worryingly high, thanks to a bit of a disagreement about how to spend money. It’s happened before, of course. They once managed to shut things down for 35 days, which, frankly, is a lot of days to not be running a country. You’d think they’d have learned. 🤷‍♀️

Each time, the markets get a bit twitchy, and the economy sighs dramatically. And this time, it’s particularly awkward because everything already costs a fortune, and the people in charge of making it cheaper haven’t quite got around to it yet. So a shutdown could just make everything even… *more*. Like adding extra sprinkles to an already excessively sugary cake.

When the purse strings are temporarily tied, lots of important-sounding people have to stop doing important-sounding things. This usually makes people nervous about risky investments, which, let’s be honest, is most of crypto. For crypto investors, expect a bit of a wobble in prices, and a pause on anything remotely resembling sensible regulation. Basically, things get put ‘on hold’ while everyone argues about the price of paperclips. 📎

Market Scenarios Anticipated

Apparently, what might happen, according to the people who get paid to guess, is a bit of a freefall in crypto prices. A ‘crypto rout’, they call it. Sounds messy. Everyone will start buying safe things like stablecoins (which, let’s be honest, are only safe until they aren’t) or Bitcoin (which is safe because… well, it just is). Altcoins? Best brace for turbulence. 🎢

The plan is, once the grown-ups sort things out, money will start flowing again, and everything will perk up. Although, knowing government, that might involve another strongly worded letter and several cups of tea. Some folks think Bitcoin might actually *benefit* from all the chaos. A bit like a vulture at a particularly well-attended picnic.

The scary people at the SEC and CFTC will have to pause their investigations into crypto, and any plans for new rules will be put in the ‘too hard’ basket. Congress will also be too busy bickering to pass any useful legislation. Chainlink’s Head of Public Policy, however, seems surprisingly optimistic. He probably has a very good biscuit tin. 🍪

“A late October market structure markup remains in the cards, but it gets a little tougher to achieve with a shutdown,” Adam Minehardt commented. (Translation: things are still complicated.)

History tells us they usually sort it out at the last minute, because nobody *really* wants a complete governmental collapse. And, funnily enough, the odds have actually dropped from 78% to 66%, suggesting that *someone*, somewhere, is feeling slightly less apocalyptic. Which is… something.

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2025-09-29 11:22