As a seasoned researcher with a knack for navigating through the intricacies of financial markets and cryptocurrencies alike, I must admit that the Fed minutes from the September meeting have added another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market. The potential 50 bps rate cut in November, which was initially seen as a certainty following Jerome Powell’s dovish speech, now seems less likely.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September gathering have diminished expectations of a 0.5% reduction in interest rates in November, which suggests a pessimistic viewpoint for Bitcoin prices. Given that the market had previously factored in a 0.5% rate cut based on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s accommodative speech following the September FOMC meeting, this development could have a bearish impact on Bitcoin’s value.
Fed Minutes For September Meeting To Cause More Uncertainty
The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from their September meeting could lead to increased market turmoil, which might negatively impact Bitcoin prices. Previously, investors had been optimistic that the US Federal Reserve would lower interest rates by an additional 0.5% at their November FOMC gathering.
Nevertheless, the minutes from the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting suggest that market participants may not be overly optimistic about an interest rate reduction, let alone a 50 basis points cut in November. Instead, Fed officials expressed that they would keep evaluating the “effects of new data on the economic forecast” when determining the most suitable monetary policy stance.
The Committee indicated their readiness to modify monetary policy, as needed, should any potential hazards emerge that might hinder them from reaching the target of 2% inflation.
As per the Federal Reserve meeting notes, the Committee’s evaluations will take into account a broad spectrum of data. This encompasses insights about employment market trends, potential inflationary pressures and future inflation forecasts, as well as financial sector conditions and global economic developments.
As a researcher, I’m eagerly anticipating the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data tomorrow. The previous US Jobs report, which emerged last week, has somewhat tempered expectations for a 50 basis points rate cut due to its impact on inflation.
The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve in September have added to the doubts among traders regarding investing further in the leading cryptocurrency, as they remain unsure. This uncertainty in the market isn’t beneficial for the price of Bitcoin because potential investors might hesitate to invest during such periods of doubt.
Upcoming US Presidential Elections Also Another Factor
The upcoming U.S. presidential election is adding to the existing market turbulence as well. Alongside the Fed’s meeting minutes and the possibility of interest rate reductions in November, investors are equally concerned about the potential results of the election.
As a crypto investor, I’ve come to expect periods of high market volatility. This is why many of us might choose to focus on capital preservation during such times. Interestingly, Bernstein analysts are predicting that the price of Bitcoin could potentially see an upward trend in the lead-up to the elections if Donald Trump’s chances of winning increase.
According to the most recent data from Polymarket, Donald Trump has a 53% chance of being elected as the next U.S. president, with odds showing him leading by more than 7%. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris’s chances stand at 46%. If Trump ultimately wins, these analysts predict that the price of Bitcoin could potentially rise to $90,000.
As a crypto investor, I’ve taken note that historical trends suggest BTC could hit a fresh all-time high following the U.S. elections, irrespective of their outcome. Interestingly, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for November commences on the 7th, making it the day after the elections.
Additionally, it’s noteworthy that experienced trader Peter Brandt has forecasted that Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by some time between August and September of 2025. This is approximately when Bitcoin might hit its maximum value during this particular market cycle.
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2024-10-09 23:10