As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade-long journey in this rollercoaster ride, I find Mike Novogratz’s analysis resonates with my own observations. The selling pressure at the $100,000 mark is indeed puzzling, but his explanation about 2024 buyers cashing out and long-term holders eating through supply makes sense.
Regardless of surpassing the $100,000 milestone in CME Futures, a persistent sell-off has prevented Bitcoin (BTC) from significantly exceeding that level in the open market. Mike Novogratz, a billionaire investor and CEO of Galaxy Digital, offers some insights into potential causes for this selling pressure.
According to his viewpoint on Galaxy Research’s data, the billionaire suggests that a significant portion of it involves buyers from 2024 who purchased when prices were over $56,000. It appears these investors are simply cashing out their gains, which is a common market trend. Novogratz strongly believes this to be the case.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed something intriguing: it appears that cashing out isn’t the only factor at play here. Novogratz has hinted that a significant number of recent buyers, particularly in the last fortnight, are long-term holders rather than short-term traders. These individuals, commonly known as “HODLers,” typically keep their assets despite market fluctuations, contributing to stability.
Due to this situation, the supply is becoming increasingly scarce, a belief shared by Novogratz that this trend could be beneficial for cryptocurrencies in the long run.
As a researcher delving into galaxy exploration, I’ve discovered that the majority of sell-offs seem to originate from investors who acquired their coins at around 56k or higher, likely due to profit-taking. However, I remain optimistic about the incoming wave of new buyers who are expected to Hold On for Dear Life (HODL), thereby gradually depleting the supply. This sustained consumption over the long term appears beneficial for the overall health of our galaxy.
— Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) November 24, 2024
Despite this, there remain several queries left unaddressed. Over the past few weeks, an enormous amount of Bitcoin, valued at billions of dollars, has exchanged hands. However, the equilibrium between supply and demand hasn’t significantly tipped to drive prices beyond six figures in the open market.
It’s possible that some of the trading activity is a result of institutional strategies aimed at realizing profits. However, the magnitude of recent activities hints at a more intricate web of market influences. Notably, significant figures such as $100,000 can function as psychological thresholds in markets, inciting both aggressive selling and prudent buying due to their perceived importance.
For Novogratz, it wasn’t entirely unexpected. Markets frequently pause near major achievements before climbing higher. As new investors continue to buy up the supply, Novogratz remains cautiously hopeful that Bitcoin‘s future trajectory will be influenced by gradual, natural progression rather than abrupt, unsustainable surges.
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2024-11-25 14:10