Why Bitcoin Price May Fall Below $60000?

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As an analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have witnessed numerous market fluctuations and geopolitical events that have significantly impacted asset prices. The recent dip in Bitcoin price to $65,521, following Israel’s retaliatory attacks against Iran and allegations of possible violations by Tether, is a reminder of the interconnectedness of global events and financial markets.

The price of Bitcoin climbed back up to $70,000, a welcome recovery, due to the fear of missing out (FOMO) during the ‘Uptober’ surge. But the optimism among investors who expected technical chart breakthroughs, lower interest rates from the US Fed, and a possible Donald Trump re-election has waned following recent worries.

The price of Bitcoin dropped to its lowest point in 24 hours (at 65,521) amidst Israel’s retaliatory actions towards Iran and news from the Wall Street Journal suggesting that the U.S. Department of Justice is probing the stablecoin Tether.

Why Bitcoin Price Risks Slipping Back to $60,000?

Market Sentiments Faltered Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks

Israel carried out focused and deliberate airstrikes on strategic Iranian military installations. Involving more than 100 aircraft, this operation was retaliation for the Iranian regime’s aggression towards Israel and its people over the past few months.

As an analyst, I can now verify that our actions have successfully concluded the Israeli countermeasure to Iran’s aggression against us. In a calculated and precise manner, we carried out targeted strikes on strategic military installations within Iran – effectively neutralizing imminent dangers to the State of Israel, as stated by IDF Spokesperson RAdm. Daniel Hagari.

It is now verified that we’ve finalized our retaliation towards the Iranian attacks on Israel. We carried out focused and accurate attacks on strategic military sites in Iran, effectively neutralizing any imminent dangers posed to the State of Israel at this time.

Watch IDF Spokesperson RAdm. Daniel Hagari talk about the…

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 26, 2024

International communities are criticizing Israel’s military action in Iran and urging for calm and a truce. The American administration is advocating for a cessation of hostilities prior to elections. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been attempting to persuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to consider a plan that would bring an end to the conflict.

Currently, Donald Trump has expressed his intention to bring an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. During the BRICS Summit, Putin acknowledged these remarks, saying “He’s being sincere.” Interestingly, Trump is currently leading the predictions in the market for the Democratic presidential candidate, surpassing Kamala Harris.

Is Tether the Next Black Swan Event?

According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, it’s rumored that U.S. authorities are examining Tether for potential breaches of sanctions regulations and anti-money laundering laws. Furthermore, there are indications that the U.S. Department of Justice is scrutinizing whether third parties have exploited Tether (USDT) to finance illicit activities such as drug trafficking, terrorism, cybercrimes, and money laundering.

In response to the report, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that there’s no evidence suggesting their company is being investigated. Yet, the value of Bitcoin and the overall crypto market plummeted when Tether (USDT) deviated from its dollar peg.

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, previously forecasted that Tether, the issuer of USDT, could potentially trigger a significant, unforeseen event similar to the Black Swan phenomenon. He suggested that governmental actions against cryptocurrency might continue, and Tether is the entity to keep an eye on due to its unique characteristics. Furthermore, Garlinghouse expressed doubt about the potential risk of quantum computing impacting the broader crypto market.

Options Traders Do Not See Bitcoin Price Hitting $100K

Although the derivatives market has boosted Bitcoin’s price and the overall crypto market surge, it seems that the $100K BTC price forecast by influential individuals and organizations is at odds with the views of options traders.

According to Deribit’s current trading data, there’s approximately a 9.58% possibility that Bitcoin prices will surpass $100,000 by December 27. As of now, options totaling around $5.80 billion are scheduled to expire, with the highest potential impact (or “max pain”) occurring at $61,000. However, keep in mind that this max pain point could shift depending on market conditions.

Furthermore, the overall Bitcoin futures Open Interest decreased by almost 3% within the past day, falling to approximately $37.98 billion from its peak of $40 billion. This downturn in Open Interest seems to be a part of the broader crypto market’s decline as uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US elections persist.

BTC Price Needs More Time to Hit New ATH

Right now, the cost of one Bitcoin is approximately $67,035. Earlier, it reached a peak of $65,521. Moreover, there’s been a 30% surge in trading activity, as traders have been readjusting following the recent dip. However, the general mood among traders remains optimistic about additional price breakouts. This confidence is fueled by other positive technical chart trends.

Keep a close watch, as a possible drop could push Bitcoin’s value under $64,000. Moreover, political elections might cause additional fluctuations that could drive the price down to around $60,000.

#Bitcoin whales recently cashed in over $1.4 billion in profits!

— Ali (@ali_charts) October 26, 2024

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the US dollar index (DXY) has become quite unpredictable, surging beyond 104 following recent economic data releases. Simultaneously, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has dipped slightly to 4.242%. This week, we’ve seen a sharp increase in Treasury yield, which traditionally encourages investors and traders to withdraw their funds from the market. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s price tends to move inversely to both the DXY and the U.S. Treasury yield. Therefore, many traders might be cautiously waiting for these indicators to settle down before making new investment decisions.

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2024-10-26 15:20