Why Bitcoin’s ATH Is Like a Fish Out of Water – Traders Keep Swimming!

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Key Takeaways

  • Ah, the recent Bitcoin rally! It has stirred an uncommon reaction among investors. Profit-taking? Pfft, that’s so last season! Meanwhile, the buying volume is as moderate as a well-brewed cup of tea. But don’t let the calm deceive you; a supply squeeze might just be lurking around the corner. There’s less Bitcoin on exchanges than there are reasonable people at a family reunion.

Let’s talk numbers, shall we? Bitcoin [BTC] has soared like a bird with an open window, first closing at a snazzy $109,216 and then reaching the remarkable $118,856. An all-time high that makes one wonder if we’re all dreaming.

Even more curious is the fact that this rally has failed to provoke the usual instinct to sell—investors seem surprisingly composed. Kind of like someone at a buffet who, despite all the delicious options, just sips their water. 💧

AMBCrypto has donned its detective hat, analyzing historical trends while sipping a cup of irony. One thing shines brightly: market sentiment is as bullish as a crowded yoga class on ‘National Relaxation Day’.

Short-term holders refuse to sell — What’s going on?

On-chain data reveals an unconventional mindset among investors. Who would’ve thought? According to CryptoQuant, our short-term holders (STHs) accumulated Bitcoin at an average price of $100,315, and are now basking in an 18% profit—but lo and behold, they cling to their precious coins like toddlers to their blankies.

Typically, these folks hold BTC for less than 155 days and are notorious for snatching profits like it’s last call at the bar. Yet here we are, with them showing remarkable restraint.

The forthcoming chart illustrates how STHs usually behave upon reaching new highs. They typically start with a timid distribution and then enter into a delightful dance of renewed accumulation, like penguins at a party.

Currently, the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)—a fancy metric for gauging profit behavior—is hanging around like a confused cat at a dog park. There’s little evidence of accumulation or distribution, suggesting our STHs have decided to play the long game.

Derivatives market calm — No FOMO in sight

The derivatives market, equally bemused, reflects this unusual optimism. Reports from CryptoQuant indicate that the funding rate is a modest 0.01—it’s a bullish bias, but hardly the kind that sends traders into a panic, like losing Wi-Fi on a streaming night.

Contracts lean slightly toward the long folks, yet the atmosphere lacks the extreme sentiment or fear of missing out (FOMO) that resembles a child’s tantrum over toy scarcity.

This mirrors the notion that participants are treading cautiously, even if the market itself is throwing a little fiesta with its new highs.

Will the FVG zone pull Bitcoin back?

When Bitcoin ascended past $111,980, it left behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG)—a treasure trove of unfulfilled orders, much like that gym membership card you’ve forgotten about. It has made a cameo appearance once again, with the price now revisiting that gap and trying to gain a foothold.

Just like an awkward reunion, it rebounded but ultimately couldn’t maintain the spark due to lurking selling pressure.

There’s an FVG now nestled between $115,222 and $111,980. If history serves its quirky lessons, Bitcoin might just decide to retest this area for old time’s sake.

However, if selling pressure remains as low as a cat’s desire to take a bath—and both STHs and derivatives traders keep their bullish hats firmly in place—Bitcoin may just continue its upward frolic. In such a delightful scenario, the FVG could serve as a launching pad for its next adventure into the stratosphere, nudging BTC beyond its recent all-time high.

A supply squeeze brewing?

Here we stand, contemplating the unfolding mystery of Bitcoin’s supply squeeze. Its availability on exchanges is dwindling like the patience of a child at a long dinner table.

It seems that long-term holders (LTHs) are acquiring Bitcoin faster than miners can issue fresh supplies, which feels rather akin to everyone trying to get a piece of cake at a party whilst the host is still cutting slices.

This darling trend indicates a sturdy bid under the market; during times of high demand, investors typically become more protective over their pieces of treasure—setting the stage for a rich upward thrust in BTC’s pricing.

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2025-07-13 08:12