Now, gather ’round, folks, because Bitcoin’s sittin’ at one of them fancy crossroads, all thanks to the Fed shavin’ a quarter point off their interest rate-a move that’s shook the market like a cat in a room full of rocking chairs. Since then, Bitcoin’s been sittin’ still as a gator in the swamp, a-waitin’ and ponderin’ if it’s gonna jump higher or just stay put and contemplate life.
Short-term, you’ve still got that jitterbug of volatility tap dancein’ around, but the herd’s feelin’ pretty chipper. Traders are smilin’ like they found a frog that talks, expectin’ a breakout that’ll send ol’ Bitcoin closer to touching them shiny all-time highs, like a kid eyein’ the last slice of pie at the county fair. 🍰
Now here’s where Axel Adler-him, the so-called market smarty-pants-throws a curveball so sideways it’d make a Mississippi steamboat pilot scratch his head. He noticed Bitcoin’s price risin’ all slick and smooth while the long-term risk’s slippin’ down like a greased pig at a contest. That ain’t your everyday occurrence, but it’s what he calls a “healthy LTH profit reset.” That fancy talk means new, pricier coins are growing up and joinin’ the long-term crowd, balancin’ out the old, cheap coins just like a seesaw with two tots of different weights.
This here balancing act cools off the market’s fever, makin’ it sturdy enough to keep on truckin’ without blowin’ its top. So even if some folks still clutch their pearls nervous-like, the long haul looks sunnier than a summer day on the Mississippi. The stage is set for some fancy footwork in the coming weeks.
Long-Term Risk: Where Bitcoin Plays It Cooler Than a Frog’s Toenails
Our friend Axel tells us since March, the scary long-term risk has been shrinkin’ down steadily, meaning the market’s gettin’ a bit saner and more promising. The secret sauce? The folks holdin’ Bitcoin for the long haul have seen their “Realized Price” climb faster than the spot price-now that’s like your uncle who bought silver spoons at high prices and still managed to make a profit while the other folks were fussin’ over cheap pennies.
What’s causin’ this peculiar dance? Coins bought during spring and summer-at prices high enough to make a prospector wince-are finally hittin’ that six-month mark, graduatin’ into the long-term holder camp. This influx of pricey new coins lifts the average realized price faster than you can say “jackrabbit.” But because these pricey coins replace older, cheap ones that are leavin’ the nest, the overall risk don’t go on no wild spree. It’s kinda like a barn dance where the rowdy young’uns replace the tired old timers, but the party stays just right.
Each time Bitcoin tries to break its all-time high, the long-term risk creeps up a smidge but not enough to give the market the jitters. The Short-Term Holders-those nervous nellies who buy and sell quicker than a cat on a hot tin roof-absorb all the supply from the Long-Term Holders, keeping things nice and orderly. This dynamic, Adler says, means Bitcoin’s cycle might just stretch on longer than a preacher’s sermon on Sunday, climbing higher without the usual overheating that torches previous bubbles.
Ready to Break the Dam? Bitcoin’s Testing Its Limits
Bitcoin’s struttin’ around at about $116,781, skitterin’ just under a resistance wall at $123,217-a number that’s been actin’ like a grumpy gatekeeper for months. This is the kinda threshold the bulls gotta bust through to keep the party rollin’.
It recently bounced off the $112,000-113,000 neighborhood, like a frog jumpin’ back into the pond after a tumble, with the 100-day SMA lendin’ a sturdy lil’ leg up. The 50-day SMA’s also struttin’ upward, stickin’ close to the current price, whisperin’ sweet promises of momentum. Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA’s loungin’ comfortably out of the way around $103,200, remindin’ folks that the big ol’ trend’s still as bullish as a bull at a rodeo.
For now, Bitcoin’s dancin’ in a nice little pattern-makin’ higher lows since early September, which suggests buyers are slowly wrestlin’ control away from the sellers. But don’t start poppin’ the corn just yet! Without a proper breakout above $117,500-118,000, this here price might just take a leisurely stroll sideways before tryin’ to knock down that $123,000 wall again.
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2025-09-19 20:19