What is happening
As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of market observation under my belt, I must admit that the crypto landscape has never failed to surprise me – and the current state of Bitcoin is no exception. October has traditionally been a bullish month for BTC, but this year’s performance so far has been anything but typical.
In early October, there was generally a pessimistic outlook for the crypto market. Many top cryptocurrencies experienced significant declines during the first week of the month. For example, the price of Bitcoin dropped by nearly $5000, falling below $61,000 on October 3rd.
Last week saw a brief rally followed by a violent market crash, resulting in significant losses. On Thursday alone, the market suffered a setback to the tune of approximately $180 million, with the value of Bitcoin momentarily dipping to around $58,946.
Over the course of the following 12 hours, I noticed a significant shift in the market dynamics, as buyers stepped up to the plate. This imbalance, from my perspective, was rectified, and as a result, Bitcoin surged to an impressive high of $62,709.
BTC in trouble
Historically speaking, Bitcoin has often performed exceptionally well during the month of October. In fact, data from the last five years suggests a pattern of strong bullish trends.
Contrary to the usual trend, Bitcoin recorded a surprising 11% increase in September this year, as opposed to the typical average loss of about 5.9%. This deviation from past patterns is noteworthy.
At the moment, Bitcoin seems to be stuck in a prolonged flat period, which is quite uncommon during halving periods. As per Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, Bitcoin might have just two weeks left before it starts a swift increase, based on trends observed following past halvings.
2024 has seen 285 days pass by so far. Should no Bitcoin bull market emerge over the next fortnight (14 days), it would set a new record for the longest period of sideways movement during a halving year, historically speaking.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 11, 2024
Experienced investor Peter Brandt has voiced some worries, hinting at the possibility that Bitcoin might experience a significant drop, potentially as high as 75%.
Brandt’s assessment is grounded in the observation that Bitcoin hasn’t hit a fresh record high since its previous peak of $73,737.94 on March 14, which was 30 weeks ago. Historically, such an event has frequently been followed by significant drops in the value of Bitcoin.
Will Uptober finally arrive?
Market makers often anticipate an upcoming surge, searching for the optimal moment to purchase at a lower price during a downturn. This is typically why assets tend to decrease in value just prior to the start of a bull market.
Bitcoin price history can give us a hint of when the current Uptober could actually begin.
For example, Bitcoin’s price was fairly low throughout most of 2020, but on October 16th, it began to rise significantly. Over the next two months, Bitcoin increased by approximately 30%.
In 2021, the crypto market went through the roof, as seen on the chart below.
2022’s market crash brought the prices down to between $20,000 and $25,000. But, at the start of 2023, there was a widespread recovery across the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
In October 20XX, Uptober commenced roughly between the 15th and 16th. By the close of November, the Bitcoin price surged from approximately $27,000 to $38,300.
In summary, the available historical data hints that the upcoming week could be crucial for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Keep in mind though, October’s bullish trend might not begin immediately, and past trends may not necessarily predict future outcomes.
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2024-10-12 13:37