Will Bitcoin Price Repeat Its Historic 400-Day Post-Halving Rally?

As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets under my belt, I’ve seen my fair share of market fluctuations and trends. The current state of Bitcoin is intriguing, to say the least. The recent dip to $58000 might seem disheartening to some, but it’s important to remember that every market has its ebbs and flows.


During the trading session on Sunday, the value of Bitcoin dropped by 1.5% to $58,000. The recent consolidation of Bitcoin’s price under $60,000 has been causing a lot of doubt in the cryptocurrency market. Yet, despite the growing worry about a recession and a significant withdrawal from Bitcoin ETFs, sellers are finding it challenging to push the price down, suggesting that buyers are actively buying. Could an increase in value be on the horizon?

Bitcoin Price Set for 12% Dip Before a Major Breakout

After the Bitcoin Halving that occurred on April 19th, the BTC price has predominantly stayed within a range, struggling repeatedly to keep above $72,000 as its level of sustained growth. Now, being 135 days after the halving event, investors’ excitement for the predicted price surge seems to be waning.

After examining the patterns in Bitcoin’s price fluctuations following halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, it appears that a significant increase in price might happen approximately 400 days post-halving.

Based on a graph posted by a user on X (previously called Twitter), @degengambleh, it appears that a repeating trend suggests substantial price increases usually occur after Bitcoin halvings. This pattern could potentially indicate another such rise might happen in 2024.

Idk about you, but I’m not fucking leaving

— Zer0 (@degengambleh) August 31, 2024

As of the deadline for this article, Bitcoin’s price stands at approximately $58,165, giving it a total market capitalization of around $1.148 Trillion. Due to the current downward trend, there’s a possibility that the asset could drop by about 12%, potentially retesting the combined support levels of $50,000 and the Flag pattern’s support line.

In simpler terms, this graph has two lines sloping downwards that create a temporary uptrend for investors to regain the bullish trend in Bitcoin prices. This temporary uptrend could rejuvenate the bullish outlook and potentially cause a dip, which might help Bitcoin prices escape the current consolidation period by breaking through a flag formation.

The post-breakout rally could drive the BTC price to $83450.

Will Bitcoin Price Repeat Its Historic 400-Day Post-Halving Rally?

Furthermore, analysis by Santiment shows a significant increase in Bitcoin hoarding by major investors (whales). Specifically, these whale-level investors, who possess between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC, have been actively building their Bitcoin stash since late July.

In simpler terms, the chart’s bright yellow line shows us that the current value of the Bitcoin held by significant investors is around 702,790 Bitcoins. This figure suggests that these investors have faith in the possibility of price increases for this digital asset in the future.

Will Bitcoin Price Repeat Its Historic 400-Day Post-Halving Rally?

On the other hand, the imminent bearish cross-over of the EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) with periods of 20, 50, 100, and 200 suggests that the current period of consolidation might continue for a little while longer.

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2024-09-01 20:58