Will Bitcoin Soar to $123K? The Conditions You Won’t Believe!

Ah, the capricious dance of Bitcoin! Today, it finds itself in a rather dismal state, languishing at a price that is, well, a mystery—much like the whereabouts of my missing socks. This recent dip has undone half the jubilant gains we celebrated post-FOMC meeting, and as the month-end volatility approaches, it seems our dear BTC is preparing for a further descent. Yet, amidst this tempest, the long-term horizon still glimmers with bullish promise, whispering sweet nothings of potential gains come February. Will our beloved Bitcoin ascend to the lofty heights of $123K? Let us embark on this whimsical exploration.

Will Bitcoin Price Hit $123K?

Since mid-November 2024, Bitcoin has been meandering through a sideways existence, much like a cat contemplating its next nap. Despite its attempts to break free from this monotonous range, it has lacked the vigor of a caffeinated squirrel. Over the past 78 days, we’ve witnessed the birth of multiple new highs, with the latest ATH of $110K gracing us on January 20.

Between November 14 and 22, 2024, Bitcoin made a valiant leap of nearly 14%, reaching $99,660. A Fibonacci tool reveals that the next ATH could be lurking around the 161.8% Fib level, teasing us with the prospect of $123K. Oh, the suspense!

4 Conditions That Could Propel BTC to $123K

To reach the fabled $123K, four pivotal changes must occur—like a cosmic alignment of the stars, but with more spreadsheets.

First, Bitcoin must conquer the $105.5K resistance level. This is the point where BTC faced rejection, much like my attempts to impress my in-laws.

The second condition involves the curious divergence between retail and institutional investors. Data from Santiment reveals that wallets holding 0 to 10 BTC—our dear retail investors—are dwindling. Meanwhile, the whales, those majestic creatures of the crypto sea, are accumulating wallets holding 100 to 1000 BTC. Retail investors, bless their hearts, often react to short-term noise and capitulate before the price reaches new heights. Whale accumulation, however, suggests that the uptrend is not yet over, and a new ATH may be on the horizon.

Whale transaction activity, those grand transfers worth $100K, has taken a nosedive since January 24. As illustrated in the image, a spike in this metric often sends prices soaring. Conversely, a drop indicates that whales are less interested, likely leading to a period of consolidation or a drop. Once this indicator reverses, Bitcoin may very well be on the path to ATHs.

Historically, January boasts an average monthly return of around 4%. But February’s average return hovers around a dazzling 15.66%. Thus, the chances of a new ATH in February, potentially at $123K, are looking rather promising.

Out of the four conditions, two are already in play. Bitcoin must overcome the $105K hurdle, and whale transactions greater than $100K need to halt their freefall and spike again. Once all four conditions align, Bitcoin could very well set a new all-time high at $123K.

Key Levels to Watch as BTC Price Drops

As we bid farewell to January, investors should brace for continued volatility. Since Thursday’s high of $106,450, Bitcoin has shed 2.04%. Expect this short-term downtrend to persist, especially around the New York open—because who doesn’t love a little drama?

In light of this, here are some key demand levels to keep an eye on: $101.5K, $100K, $98.2K, and $96.8K.

  • $101.5K is the confluence of the 78-day range’s upper limit and the current week’s VWAP—sounds fancy, doesn’t it?
  • Next, we have the 2025 VWAP at $100K and the 78-day consolidation’s VWAP at $98.2K, both crucial support levels.
  • Finally, the most significant support level is the highest volume traded level in the past 78 days at $96.8K—because who doesn’t love a good bargain?

These key support levels present excellent opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) at a discount. A bounce at these levels could lead us to an ATH. And let’s not forget a key resistance level to watch: $105K. Overcoming this level will allow Bitcoin to revisit the current ATH of $110K and potentially set up a new one at $123K.

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2025-01-31 13:01