Key Takeaways
Bitcoin tests support with Open Interest near extremes, stablecoin flows sidelined, and sentiment reset hinting at a potential contrarian setup. Or so they say…
Bitcoin [BTC], the ever-reliable protagonist in our financial drama, clings to key support as the market churns with indecision. Over the past week, it has managed to print two lower lows, with the 25th of August rebound attempt failing to stick. Much like a character in a poorly written play, BTC is struggling to find its next act.
The result?
BTC down 4% on the week, tagging an eight-week low at $107,452. However, Open Interest spiked to $84.93 billion, signaling extreme leverage. A liquidity sweep was all but inevitable, much like the predictable climax in a soap opera.
According to AMBCrypto, this reset could set the stage for a recovery leg or pave the way for a deeper drawdown. Either way, the stakes are high, and market patience is wearing thinner than a politician’s promise.
Risk-off tone deepens as Bitcoin breaches support
A clean break below $110k was all it took to flip sentiment. Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index just printed a four-month low at 39 (Fear), sliding from 50 (Neutral) only a day earlier. Capitulation hadn’t hit yet, but conviction was clearly thinning, much like the air at the top of a mountain.
On the flip side, the last three dips into this zone had triggered strong rebounds. Most importantly, when the index hit 42, it fueled a rally to BTC’s then-ATH of $123k in less than three weeks. It’s almost as if the market has a sense of humor, playing with our emotions like a cat with a ball of yarn.
This time, though, there’s a key divergence. In the last three rebounds, the $107k-$110k range lined up with ‘Greed,’ signaling overheated positioning and topping risk. Now, the same zone is being tested under ‘Fear,’ pointing to a sentiment reset. Simply put, what was once a resistance ceiling is now acting as potential support. Technically, that flip often sets up Bitcoin’s contrarian rebound structures, especially if liquidity starts clustering on the bid side. But who knows, maybe this time it’s just another false alarm.
Liquidity build-up raises risk of a bull trap breakdown
Stablecoin minting is a solid proxy for liquidity flows. Over the past three days alone, issuers have pumped out a combined $4 billion in supply. Yet, BTC has kept losing back-to-back support levels, showing that fresh liquidity isn’t cycling straight into spot bids. Adding weight, net USDT outflows hit $915 million on the 27th of August, lining up with BTC’s 3.67% drawdown over the next 48 hours. In short, the $110k dip wasn’t absorbed as bids stayed thin, much like a desert in the middle of a drought.
In that case, Bitcoin’s fading risk appetite is leaning bearish. Spot bids are thin, liquidity’s parked on the sidelines, and sentiment’s stuck in Fear. All in all, no clear bottom yet. The $2 billion short wall at $115k is still untouched, showing bulls aren’t gunning for that liquidity. Until they do, upside looks capped. Bitcoin stays vulnerable to a deeper drawdown, and unless sentiment flips back toward Greed, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. 📉 BTC, where will you go next? Only time will tell, and perhaps a few more cups of tea… 🍵
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2025-09-01 06:12