Dear reader, permit me to share with you the musings of Mr. Matthew Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, on the matter of the Bitcoin (BTC) 4-year cycle and its fate under the reign of President Trump. Mr. Hougan, a gentleman of considerable intellect, has pondered upon the question of whether a change in the political climate in Washington DC could prolong the current bull market until the year 2026 and beyond. 🤔
Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle: Not Governed By Halvings
Pray, let us consider the Bitcoin 4-year cycle, which, as we all know, is a pattern of three years of splendid appreciation followed by a year of dire setbacks for all cryptocurrencies. A chart, my dear friend, will paint a thousand words. 😊
According to the chart, 2025 promises to be a year of bountiful gains for BTC, whereas 2026 may bring forth a ‘crypto winter,’ a season of prolonged deleveraging and declining prices across the digital asset landscape. 😢
Mr. Hougan, however, challenges the prevalent notion that Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is dictated by its halving events. He asserts that BTC’s quadrennial halvings, which occurred in 2016, 2020, and will occur again in 2024, do not align perfectly with the cycle’s peaks and troughs. 📈📉
Regarding the present market phase, Mr. Hougan stands by Bitwise’s earlier prediction that BTC may double in value this year, surpassing the sumptuous mark of $200,000. He attributes this to the influx of institutional capital into crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the increased acquisition of BTC by corporations and governments. 💰
Shallow Pullbacks, Says Hougan
Mr. Hougan regards Trump’s recent crypto executive order (EO) as “overwhelmingly bullish,” for it elevates the expansion of the US crypto ecosystem to a national priority. The EO advocates for the creation of a “national crypto stockpile” and paves the way for Wall Street banks and institutional investors to venture into the market under favorable regulations. Mr. Hougan elucidates:
In my humble opinion, the introduction of ETFs was a significant event that attracted hundreds of billions of dollars into the crypto ecosystem from fresh investors. That was the driving force behind this cycle. However, the full mainstreaming of crypto, as envisioned by Trump’s executive order, where banks safeguard crypto alongside other assets, stablecoins are seamlessly integrated into the global payments ecosystem, and the largest institutions establish positions in crypto, I am convinced will bring trillions of dollars. 💵
Mr. Hougan acknowledges that the EO’s full impact will unfold over years rather than months, citing two key reasons for this gradual progression. Firstly, the newly appointed White House crypto czar, Mr. David Sacks, will require time to develop a comprehensive regulatory framework. Secondly, major Wall Street firms will likely take even longer to fully acknowledge and incorporate crypto’s potential. 🕰️
In summation, Mr. Hougan posits that although the market has not entirely emancipated itself from Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle, any setbacks will likely be more shallow and fleeting than those of yesteryear. 🌉
Similar to Bitwise’s prediction, Standard Chartered recently ventured that BTC may soar as high as $200,000 by the end of 2025. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $106,119, having risen 3.7% in the past 24 hours. 📈
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2025-01-31 12:13