You Won’t Believe What Happens to Dogecoin-It’s a Joke

by

Dogecoin, you know, that playful coin that’s gained more fame than actual utility, was hovering at a critical, almost pretentious structural and technical point the moment this piece was drafted. According to the esteemed AMBCrypto, the leading memecoin was trading at a historic discount so rare, it almost makes you wonder if the market itself is playing a joke on us.

The on‑chain metric that counts how many days the coin has stayed profitable-“the number of days spent at profit”-sulted at 1,100 days. That’s an all‑time high! In plain English: a lot of DOGE holders are, as your grandma would say, “underwater.”

Such curses come in the final throes of a correction, akin to the moment you realize you tried to lick the frosting off a cake with a drill and now look like you just got rid of a tiny, spinning paper mop of frosting. It indicates a surplus supply and a legion of long‑term DOGE holders who think their claims are more an art form than securities. The structural cycle metric, unsurprisingly, did not give anyone solace of an imminent bottom.

Who Ended Up Underwater?

Timeline of DOGE HODLer positions

The Dogecoin HODLer Net Position Change metric-the chronicle of if believers are accumulating or fleeing-shows monthly movement. Negative numbers mean people are cashing out, white‑knuckling the wealth they built; positive numbers indicate that devotees are still tossing coins into the sea.

During the 2021 and the late‑2024 rallies, we witnessed the classic “sell‑at‑peak” dance: April‑May 2021, October‑November 2021, November‑December 2021-months that would fill a calendar with footnotes of how much you lost when you pushed that link like a coin of the realm.

Long‑term investors, evidently eager to book profits, had grown perennially wise enough to recognize that DOGE was over‑extended. Perhaps they read the fine print at the bottom of a receipt that says “Approved Credit: $0.195 to $0.340.” Yet, when July‑October 2021 and April‑October 2024 came around-as DOGE traded between $0.195 and $0.34, then $0.095 to $0.170-their enthusiasm kept pouring in, deepening the underwater effect.

The biggest culprit was a continuous buying blitz that began in January 2025. The kernel of hope for Bitcoin (BTC) unwound in October 2025, and DOGE trended southward. This steady watching of the drop-DOGE falling from $0.35 to $0.092-explain’s the region where “Number of Days Spent at a Profit” hit its awe‑serious peak.

MVRV pricing bands

MVRV pricing bands, a statistical bet that’s as perilous as dangling your wallet in front of a hungry crowd, use the ratio of market value to realized value. High numbers mean you’re at a cycle peak, and low numbers mean you’re at a cycle bottom.

In the past two cycles, DOGE traded hovering around and below the 0.8RP (realized price) for two years, then climbed back above the realized price support. History is forever repeating itself; if you scroll back, you will see the same arms‑cross‑the‑neck flick your dogs do when they’re spilling the iceware.

Thus, if you hope that DOGE will comfortably reclaim the $0.140 support, be prepared for two more years. Long memories for short lives.

The Final Summation (or the Tightrope Walk)

  • Late 2024’s DOGE rally, a whirlwind of HODLer buying, untethered itself from any clear bell of progress-and that’s doggedly that.
  • MVRV pricing bands surfed DOGE’s deeply discounted glory, but the long‑term decline may persist for another year or so. Picture a tired mountain goat clutching the rope as it jerks the world up again.

Read More

2026-02-25 09:59