As a seasoned researcher with a decade of experience in the crypto markets, I have seen my fair share of market swings and volatility. The current state of Ethereum is reminiscent of a rollercoaster ride, with its recent highs at $3,600 followed by a swift retracement to a support zone.
For the past few weeks, Ethereum‘s price has seen significant fluctuations, causing excitement and apprehension among investors. It briefly touched $3,600 but then retreated and is now hovering around a crucial support level. The market is unsure about its future direction. Analyzing the chain reveals that approximately $800 million in Ethereum could potentially lose value if the current support fails. Technical indicators suggest a blend of opinions with a slight tilt towards a potential decline.
Ethereum Price Wants to Go Lower
As an analyst, I’m observing that the Ethereum (ETH) price trend is shifting towards a bearish stance from a neutral position. The price action appears to be confined within a descending triangle chart formation, with current trades hovering close to the lower boundary of this pattern.
Currently, the cost of Ethereum (ETH) hovers just under its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (represented by the green line), while it’s slightly above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (depicted by the black line). This suggests a somewhat divided opinion, leaning slightly towards bearish trends.
Furthermore, current candlestick formations suggest market uncertainty, as small-sized candles display conflicting trends and weak directional movement. However, there’s a possibility of a major price shift once a breakout occurs from the descending triangle configuration.
The cost of Ethereum has notable support points approximately at $3,130 (based on its 200-day moving average), and the range near $3,000 serves as a substantial support area historically.
Conversely, the cost of ETH encounters a pair of potential hurdles near $3,332.12 (50-day Exponential Moving Average) and the upper limit of the descending triangle approximately $3,600.
In simpler terms, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49.18, meaning it’s neither showing signs of overbuying nor overselling, implying that the market could go up or down. This ambiguity is reflected in the general uncertainty among investors. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), on the other hand, is at 0.07, suggesting a slight influx of money, but not enough to predict robust bullish energy.
The trading activity is quite light, suggesting there’s not much enthusiasm among buyers or sellers. A significant increase in activity (or volume) would be required to validate any potential shift from the current trend.
According to recent Ethereum price predictions, the current trend appears to be downwards (bearish). But if the price can rebound from the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and surpass $3,600, this would suggest a strong market, flipping the bearish outlook on its head. This move would make the previous bearish argument invalid, paving the way for potential targets of $3,800 and even $4,000.
ETH On-Chain Analysis Reveals More Downside Probable
According to Coinalyze’s data, Ethereum’s open interest declined by 2.66% within the past 24 hours. Open interest refers to the total active contracts on an asset, which grows when a new contract is initiated (regardless of whether it’s a long or short position). With both the decreasing price and this decrease in open interest, there could be potential for Ethereum’s price to drop further.
As a seasoned crypto investor with years of experience under my belt, I find it concerning to learn that over 258,000 ETH (approximately $800 million) could potentially be at risk if the price of Ethereum drops below $3,065. This data comes from Break Even Price (BEP) analysis by IntoTheBlock, which calculates the breakeven point for each address where they would no longer be in profit. The potential loss is significant and could have a substantial impact on my investment portfolio if I’m heavily invested in Ethereum. It’s crucial to keep an eye on market trends and make adjustments accordingly to minimize any potential losses.
Furthermore, according to CryptoQuant, Ethereum’s exchange reserves have grown by 0.44% in the past day and 0.76% over the last week. This upward trend suggests a higher supply being offered for sale. Meanwhile, CoinGecko data reveals a 3% decrease in Ethereum’s 24-hour trading volume. Given this decline along with the falling prices, it strengthens the bearish sentiment.
A rise in Ethereum trading activity (volume) and investor commitment (open interest) could shift the momentum of this asset, suggesting a growing market resilience.
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2024-08-02 15:21