As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience navigating market cycles, I must admit that the current outlook for Ethereum (ETH) is a cause for concern. With an 80% probability according to bets on Polymarket, it seems we might not see ETH reaching its All-Time High (ATH) in 2024.
The cost of Ethereum (ETH) might plunge by about 30% despite efforts to regain its pre-Monday crash levels. The unpredictable economic climate, characterized by high interest rates and possible recession indicators in the U.S., could trigger bearish market feelings, severely restraining any potential price increase.
80% Chance Ethereum Price Will Not Hit ATH In 2024
As a crypto investor, I find myself navigating treacherous terrain as 80% of investors on Polymarket predict that Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, won’t touch its all-time high this year. This pessimistic outlook arises following Ethereum’s inability to surge past $4,000 with the introduction of US-based spot Ethereum ETFs, instead succumbing to selling pressure at $3,545.
Most investors seem skeptical about Ether reaching its record highs in 2024, with a substantial wager of approximately $471,615 placed against this happening. In contrast, just 18% of those polled anticipate Ethereum prices to hit their all-time peak in Q4, placing bets worth around $198,955. Meanwhile, only 5% have put their money on Ether, which reached a high of $4,878 in Q3, with wagers totaling roughly $255,601.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Short-Term Outlook Bearish
The price of Ethereum had difficulty finding strong resistance at $2,600, preventing bulls from accumulating enough resources to aim for the $3,000 level. If Ethereum manages to advance, it could potentially lessen the impact of an upcoming “death cross” pattern. A death cross occurs when a short-term average line falls below a long-term average line, which is typically a bearish indicator.
The short-term average price (50-day Exponential Moving Average) is decreasing towards a point where it could intersect with the long-term average price (200-day EMA). This pattern might lead to more sellers entering the Ethereum market, potentially causing its price to drop to around $1,830.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed a potential roadblock at around $2,700, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci level. This could be contributing to the current bearish sentiment. Moreover, a sell signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests that there’s less confidence in a swift recovery towards $3,000 at this moment.
It’s important to note that a death cross and bearish bets might not always accurately predict Ethereum’s performance. Previous Ethereum price forecasts have shown that not every death cross leads to significant price correction. Moreover, there’s a chance that whales could buy the dips at $2,400 and $2,200, potentially fueling a rally pushing the price above $3,000.
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2024-08-10 22:06