Bitcoin’s Price is Crashing and Arthur Hayes Couldn’t Care Less

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In his latest Substack essay “Snow Forecast” (published on November 17, 2025, because apparently, we all need to know exactly what a financial genius is thinking every 10 seconds), Arthur Hayes lays down the shocking truth behind Bitcoin‘s price plummet from its October all-time high. And, no, it’s not a sudden bout of existential despair. Hayes blames the tightening dollar liquidity, the fake flows driven by derivatives, and the fact that Bitcoin, to him, is simply the “weathervane” of global fiat liquidity. He thinks it trades based on future expectations of money supply, rather than the latest panic-driven headlines. So, nothing to see here, folks-just another day in the chaotic world of crypto.

Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down?

Hayes takes a stroll down memory lane, back to April 2, 2025, during the “US Liberation Day” chaos when Trump decided tariffs were a fun hobby. This, of course, triggered the usual fears of a depression. But then, like a magician pulling a rabbit out of a hat, Trump “TACO’d” (his brilliant word for calling a truce on tariffs) on April 9, and boom-Bitcoin shot up by 21%. He even goes so far as to claim that this rally wasn’t some kind of magical decoupling of reality, but merely a temporary distortion created by ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury vehicles. Well, that’s comforting.

Speaking of ETFs, Hayes has some colorful language to describe the so-called “institutional adoption” everyone keeps talking about. He points out that BlackRock’s IBIT is mostly owned by hedge funds and prop trading desks, which are shockingly not interested in Bitcoin, but rather just using it for a little side hustle with Bitcoin futures. The moral of the story? The “institutional adoption” narrative is about as real as a unicorn in a tuxedo. As soon as the market starts to look anything less than shiny, those hedge fund folks are out faster than you can say “liquidity crisis.”

Now, if you were feeling good about Bitcoin’s future, Hayes would like to burst that bubble. He highlights how the glorious idea of Digital Asset Treasuries, like Strategy (MSTR), only looked good when their stock was at a premium to their holdings. But once that premium turned into a discount, poof-their Bitcoin holdings started looking less impressive. Thanks to ETF flows and DAT issuance, Bitcoin had been rising even as dollar liquidity was shrinking, but that fairy tale is now over. And guess what? Bitcoin’s going to have to fall to reflect this “short-term worry” about dollar liquidity not growing as fast as the politicians promised. Tough luck, crypto fans.

This Will End The Bitcoin Downtrend

Hayes, in his infinite wisdom, goes back to his core belief that “money is politics.” Naturally, he says it’s now up to President Trump and Treasury Secretary “Buffalo Bill” Bessent to either deploy the Treasury and create another housing bubble (Yay! Bubbles!), or be exposed as a bunch of limp-dick charlatans. Sounds like a fun time for all involved.

He even draws a cheeky comparison to 2022 when Biden and Yellen managed to suck $2.5 trillion out of the Fed’s Reverse Repo Program, which, of course, sent stocks, housing, gold, and crypto into a frenzy. Hayes is so confident that Bessent will pull off a similar miracle that he’s practically betting on it. And yet, in the short term, he remains cautious. After all, since July, a trillion dollars of dollar liquidity evaporated, and $150 billion in Treasury General Account reductions won’t change that anytime soon. Not to mention, talk of renewed QE is just talk-until someone signals otherwise. So don’t hold your breath, folks.

Meanwhile, Hayes is making moves. He’s adjusted Maelstrom’s positioning and raised the USD stablecoin position in anticipation of lower crypto prices. Despite all the doom and gloom, he’s still “long as fuck,” which, apparently, is the ultimate strategy in this chaotic mess. His advice? Keep an eye on Zcash (ZEC), which he believes is the only token that might survive the negative liquidity storm. If Bitcoin is the Titanic, Zcash is the lifeboat.

According to Hayes, the current Bitcoin correction is actually a warning. He sees the Bitcoin dive from $125,000 to the low $90,000s while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hover near all-time highs as a sign that a “credit event” is on the horizon. Translation? A 10-20% equity drawdown and a 10-year US yield near 5%. And if that happens, Bitcoin could sink to $80,000 to $85,000. But don’t worry, folks-if the Fed and Treasury are forced to “accelerate their money printing capers,” Bitcoin might just skyrocket back to $200,000 or $250,000 by the end of the year. It’s like the ultimate roller coaster, except with more money and fewer safety restraints.

And let’s not forget China. Hayes predicts that once the US accelerates its dollar creation, China will likely join in with their own easing measures. He points to the People’s Bank of China’s recent government bond purchases as the beginning of “China QE.” Hayes is clearly excited by the thought of both Trump and Xi thinking Bitcoin is valuable. He asks, “If the two largest economies in the world think Bitcoin is important, why shouldn’t you?” A valid question, indeed. A bit dramatic, but valid.

At press time, BTC was trading at $90,477. Just in case you wanted to know where things stand right now.

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2025-11-18 12:13