As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I find Charles Edwards’ analysis intriguing and well-supported by historical data. Given my own personal journey through various market cycles, I can attest that the third quarter is indeed a challenging time for Bitcoin investors, as evidenced by its lowest average returns among all quarters. However, as we approach the end of September, it seems that the worst may be behind us, according to Edwards’ prediction.
For most of the year so far, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have been moving horizontally rather than up or down. But signs are emerging that things might change, with a potential recovery trend on the horizon. In fact, a well-known figure in the crypto world believes he’s found key moments to invest in Bitcoin and other digital currencies. According to his forecast, we could be seeing the end of hard times for Bitcoin, and the market could be about to enter a prosperous phase.
Best And Worst Time To Be In Bitcoin
Charles Edwards, the creator of Capriole Investments, a fund specializing in digital assets, recently expressed his thoughts on when it might be optimal or suboptimal to invest in Bitcoin, using X (previously known as Twitter) as his platform. In his post, he included a screenshot displaying the most and least profitable quarters for Bitcoin’s performance.
Based on the data, the fourth quarter tends to be the strongest for Bitcoin, while the third quarter experiences the most weakness. Consequently, given this pattern, we’re currently experiencing Bitcoin’s weakest period. Yet, it’s important to note that as September nears its end, the downtrend might be approaching its conclusion.
For the third quarter, the average return was a disappointing +5.39%, marking the poorest performance compared to any other quarter. The second-worst performing quarter was the second, but it still boasted a strong +26.89% return. Conversely, the median return for the fourth quarter dipped into negative territory at -4.64%, making it the only quarter with a negative median return.
Contrasting with other quarters, the fourth one historically shows optimism, boasting an average return of 88.84% and a median return of 56.90%. As we approach the final days of the third quarter, Edwards asserts that the most challenging period for Bitcoin has passed. In his post, he celebrates those who have remained invested, saying “If you’re still here, congratulations! You survived the toughest stretch in Bitcoin. The best is yet to come.
BTC Could Jump To New All-Time High In October
According to the monthly returns displayed on the Coinglass site for Bitcoin, it appears that Edwards’ prediction about the impending end of the decline might be accurate. Notably, October, November, and December have been historically strong months for the cryptocurrency, which suggests this year could follow the same trend.
If this pattern continues, we might expect Bitcoin’s average price to rise approximately 20% in October. This potential increase could pave the way for Bitcoin to reach a record peak. If the positive trend persists, Bitcoin’s price may hit a new all-time high before 2024 comes to an end.
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2024-09-19 17:42