As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience in this volatile market, I find myself both exhilarated and cautious as we approach today’s options expiry for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). With BTC options worth $5.8 billion and ETH options valued at $1.9 billion set to expire, the market dynamics are undeniably exciting.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated considerable power in the run-up to Friday’s options expiration, soaring above the $65,000 mark for the first time since August. In all, a massive $5.8 billion worth of BTC options will be settled today, coinciding with the release of the PCE inflation data for August. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) options valued at approximately $1.9 billion will also expire today.
BTC, ETH Options Expiry on the Radar
According to Deribit’s data, approximately 89,027 Bitcoin options are set to expire today with a combined worth of about $5.8 billion. This high number implies a put-call ratio of 0.64, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for Bitcoin. Additionally, the most sensitive price point for these BTC options is currently estimated at $59,000.
Historically, $65,000 has served as a significant barrier for Bitcoin’s price. For the current upward trend to persist, it’s crucial that bulls manage to hold this level. At present, the Bitcoin price stands at $65,365.65, marking impressive September growth compared to the past ten years.
Conversely, Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant investment influxes yesterday, indicating that the institutional interest in this asset class continues to be strong. Regarding the ongoing options expiration, Luuk Strijers, CEO of cryptocurrency derivatives platform Deribit, commented on the situation.
Approximately 20% of Bitcoin options are currently in-the-money, implying that they can be exercised immediately and at a profit. This significant expiration may lead to increased market turbulence or trading activity as traders either close or adjust their positions. Such actions might also influence the price.
As a researcher observing market trends, I’ve noticed that the quarterly deliveries have caused some shifts in positions and reduced margins. This, in turn, has kept Implied Volatility (IV) across major contracts relatively low. Given the persistent downward pressure on IV, the upcoming two weeks might present an opportune moment to strategize and establish positions with the aim of capitalizing on potential gains in Q4.
In addition to Bitcoin, there are approximately 718,000 Ethereum options worth around $1.9 billion that will expire today. This ratio of put (sell) options to call (buy) options is 0.47, and the price point causing the most potential impact is $2,500. The price of Ethereum has been robust as the funding rates indicate a potential surge towards $3,000.
All Eyes on August Inflation Data
The announcement of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the PBoC has already led to a crypto market surge along with global equities. Thus, all eyes will be on the PCE inflation data for August, with an expectation of a 0.2% surge over the previous month. Speaking on the development, analysts at TD Securities said:
In August, it’s expected that the main measure of consumer prices increased at a gentle rate of 0.15% monthly. This slow rise can be attributed to the strong prices of shelter, which will limit the increase in core PCE inflation. Additionally, the headline PCE inflation might have also slowed, printing a soft 0.10% m/m. Furthermore, we anticipate that personal spending will decelerate, increasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, in nominal and real terms each month.
In light of recent events in Japan, Shigeru Ishiba emerged victorious against hardline nationalist Sanae Takaichi, setting him up as the next Prime Minister. Arthur Hayes humorously suggested that the crypto community would have favored Takaichi, who would have continued with “Abenomics,” a term for the economic strategies of previous Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and maintained monetary easing policies.
If #crypto had a vote, we would want Takaichi. She wants to continue “Abenomics” which means more money printing and toleration of a weak yen.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) September 27, 2024
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2024-09-27 11:06