Bitcoin’s Miserable Six-Month Forecast: Are We All Doomed?

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Bitcoin [BTC] continued its sad, downward march on Tuesday, the 24th of February, as if it had just been told that the great British Empire no longer ruled the waves. It was down 4.58% in the past 24 hours, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index tumbled to a shocking 5-an abysmally low reading, last glimpsed in 2019, when it seemed the world was still slightly less mad.

Ethereum [ETH] joined the parade of misery, its fortunes sinking like a lead balloon, all thanks to the timely exit of co-founder Buterin. As these two crypto titans staggered about the marketplace like a pair of drunken sailors, the mood became positively “risk-off.” Traders, clearly trying to minimize exposure to further pain, began pulling their investments like someone pulling a hand away from a hot stove. Investors were making their swift exit, and not a soul seemed left to pick up the pieces.

More Bitcoin is sold at a loss than at a profit

In a most enlightening post on X (because that’s where all the serious financial chatter happens these days), blockchain intelligence platform Glassnode gleefully pointed out that the 90-day realized profit/loss ratio had fallen below 1. This meant that, for the past three months, the average holder had been unloading Bitcoin at a loss. Truly a masterpiece of financial misfortune.

In fact, the platform called this “a full transition to a regime of excess loss-realizing”-because who doesn’t want to be in a “regime” like that? The extreme fear levels and synchronized sell-offs only reinforced the notion that any remaining traces of greed had long since evaporated like a puff of smoke from an ill-conceived cigar.

But wait, there’s more. These gloomy phases, when the ratio is under 1, tend to persist for a good six months. Once the ratio climbs back above 1 and stays there (as if that’s ever going to happen anytime soon), investors can take it as an “on-chain buy signal.” Let’s all hold our breath.

The Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has been on a steady decline since October 2025, much like your enthusiasm after reading this report. The metric reveals the total amount of profit or loss across all coins, expressed as a ratio. The lower it falls, the less pressure there is on Bitcoin from profit-taking. This is the cryptocurrency equivalent of saying, “Well, it’s all gone to pot.”

By itself, the NUPL doesn’t exactly scream “buy Bitcoin!” unless the ratio drops below 0, which, let’s face it, is entirely plausible. In this case, the market cap would be less than the realized cap-another sign that investors have been losing money at a rather alarming rate.

The further the market cap falls from the realized cap, the more attractive the prospect of value buyers swooping in to “pick up the bargain.” Of course, that depends on whether they enjoy catching falling knives. So, for those brave souls, it’s one to watch. As things stand, don’t hold your breath. The next six months will likely be a masterclass in bearish price action.

Final Summary

  • The realized profit/loss ratio has revealed that Bitcoin holders have been realising more losses than profits over the last three months-a sure sign that the market is in the grip of extreme misfortune.
  • Prepare yourselves for another six months of bleak outlook, and keep your eyes on NUPL readings below 0, which may just signal a “deep discount” on Bitcoin, should you be foolish enough to buy.

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2026-02-25 04:07