While there was talk of an ‘altcoin season’ earlier this year, it hasn’t materialized as strongly as in previous cycles, even with Bitcoin’s price and market share recently falling. However, one analyst points to a long-term chart suggesting the altcoin market has reset and could be poised for significant growth, mirroring past patterns. If history repeats itself, we might be on the verge of a new altcoin season.
Historic Alt Season Setup Forms As Bitcoin Ratio Hits Base Zone
Market expert @CyrilXBT recently shared a chart on X that compares the value of all cryptocurrencies *except* the top 10, to the value of Bitcoin. The chart currently shows a ratio of 0.129, which the expert believes is a historically significant level. This is the same price range where major surges in altcoins have begun in the past, suggesting another such surge could be coming.
As I’ve been analyzing market cycles, I’ve observed a consistent pattern in the lead-up to altcoin seasons. Specifically, this particular ratio – comparing the value of altcoins to Bitcoin – seems to be a key indicator. I’ve noticed that every significant altcoin rally in the past has started when this ratio stopped declining and found support between $0.12 and $0.13. Looking back at previous cycles, like 2015-2016, the ratio began very low and remained relatively stable for a period. Then, during the 2017-2018 bull run, we saw a substantial increase, pushing the ratio above 0.3 – a clear signal of the beginning of a major alt season.
By 2020, the ratio significantly decreased, falling below 0.129 and losing most of its earlier gains, settling into a stable, low-level range. Then, in 2021, there was an unprecedented surge in altcoin activity, causing the ratio to jump to over 0.55 during the peak of the bull market. Trading volume also reached record levels, far exceeding previous years.
New Alt Season Conditions Take Shape
Like what happened in 2020, the recent market cycle from 2022 to 2024 experienced a downturn after a high point, with Bitcoin becoming more dominant. Now, in the current cycle starting in 2025, the ratio of altcoins to Bitcoin has dropped back to a key level of 0.129, which is often a good time to buy, and Bitcoin’s dominance has fallen to a low of 57.9% this year.
According to CyrilXBT, the current market conditions resemble those seen before a significant surge in altcoins in the past. He points out that if the pattern repeats, the ratio between altcoin season highs could reach approximately 0.80 to 0.90 in this cycle.
According to @CyrilXBT, the market is showing signs of settling into a normal pattern, and past cycles suggest that the current performance doesn’t mean altcoins are failing. Instead, it indicates the market has completely reset and may be preparing for a new period of growth for alternative cryptocurrencies.
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2026-02-27 23:12