Kalshi and Polymarket: $20 Billion Dreams or Financial Absurdity?

Prediction markets, where people trade contracts about whether Biden will win or if it’ll rain next Tuesday, have become the new frontier for Kalshi and Polymarket. Their fundraising dreams? A $20 billion valuation each, because why not? The WSJ says it’s “early-stage,” which means it’s probably a lie wrapped in a PowerPoint.
/|\text{Baseline}-\text{Human}|[/latex]- achieved by large language models on the ASAP-SAS dataset; a transformer ensemble (point A, Ormerod, 2022) and a fine-tuned GPT ensemble (point B, Ormerod & Kwako, 2024) progressively surpass earlier baselines-with a subsequent GPT-4 implementation (point C, Jiang & Bosch, 2024) projected to reach a normalized score of -1.52-indicating a substantial, ongoing refinement in automated assessment capabilities.](https://arxiv.org/html/2603.04820v1/2603.04820v1/x1.png)






