As a seasoned researcher with years of experience analyzing financial markets and their interconnections, I find it fascinating to observe the correlation between Bitcoin’s price movements and political events such as the U.S. presidential elections. While it might seem far-fetched to some, the relationship between Bitcoin and the winning odds of a specific candidate is an intriguing phenomenon that warrants further investigation.
On Sunday, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $69,000, leading to substantial market liquidations. Notably, some analysts have observed a connection between this fall and a decrease in the chances of victory for U.S Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump before the elections on November 3rd.
Bitcoin Price Fall Induces $232.6 Million In Liquidations
Over the past few days, Bitcoin has undergone a notable price adjustment after experiencing a steady increase in October, where its value grew by approximately 20%. The value of this leading cryptocurrency initially decreased from over $73,000 on Friday to around $69,000, finding support in that area.
After a short spell of horizontal price action, Bitcoin saw another substantial dip on Sunday, touching a local low of $67,960. During this price fall, crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that approximately 104,787 trading positions were liquidated, leading to a loss of around $232.6 million.
According to data presented by Martinez, long traders dominated the statistics, with a total of $198.6 million in liquidations compared to just $34 million in closed short positions. This trend indicates that a significant number of traders predicted a recovery for the leading crypto market player after its initial price dip on Friday.
Currently, Bitcoin has retreated to levels above $68,000, showing few signs of its next price direction. Should the current downtrend continue, it’s possible that Bitcoin could dip down to around $55,000, aligning with a prolonged period of range-bound trading that’s been ongoing for the past eight months.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s price might rebound to reach or surpass its record high of $73,750, given the persistently optimistic market sentiment, increased ETF investments, the upcoming U.S. election, and an expected 25-basis-point reduction in the Federal Reserve interest rate.
Is A Potential Trump Loss A Threat To Bitcoin?
It appears that Bitcoin’s fall on Sunday could be connected with a decrease in the likelihood of Donald Trump, a well-known crypto advocate and U.S. presidential candidate, winning the elections on November 5. According to data from Polymarket, after Democrat candidate Kamala Harris, the U.S. Vice President, became the favorite to win in Pennsylvania, Trump’s probability of winning decreased by approximately 4.3%.
Despite Trump currently leading Harris in polls with 53.8% to her 46.1%, if he were to lose the presidency, it could trigger a significant drop in Bitcoin’s price, which is the market leader for cryptocurrencies. However, past trends suggest that such a decline would likely be short-lived, as Bitcoin has typically shown a bullish trend following U.S. elections, regardless of the election outcome.
Currently, Bitcoin is being exchanged for approximately $68,471 per unit, representing a decrease of 1.38% over the past day. Simultaneously, the daily trading volume has dropped by 40.54%, amounting to about $24.40 billion.
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2024-11-04 02:11