AAVE at $100: Will It Collapse to $77?

Aave (AAVE) price is trading at $91.02 on April 9, near flat on the session, as the $100 level confirms its transformation from support to resistance on the 4-hour chart. The Supertrend indicator is red at 87.36, the MACD histogram is printing a deeply negative reading of -0.85, and price has failed to reclaim $100 since breaking below that level following the sharp intraday drop to $83.92 on April 6. The next annotated floor on the chart sits at $77.97, the primary downside target if current levels give way.

AAVE Price Capped Below $100 as Supertrend and MACD Confirm Bearish Momentum

The 4-hour chart confirms a clear structural shift at $100. AAVE spent much of February and March trading above that level, and the breakdown this week has left the zone acting as overhead resistance. The chart labels $100 explicitly as psychological support turned resistance, with the immediate intraday ceiling at $94.12 capping every recovery attempt since the break lower.

The 4H Supertrend (10,3) reads red at $87.36, a dynamic level now acting as a near-term downside magnet. The MACD (12,26,9) offers no relief: the MACD line is negative at -0.11, the signal negative at -0.74, and the histogram printing a deeply negative -0.85, placing sellers firmly in control of momentum with no reversal signal forming on either timeframe.

Aave founder Stani Kulechov stated on X that the protocol’s risk infrastructure has “historically processed over 1,200 payloads and 3,000 parameters without issues,” but the exit of BGD Labs as core technical contributor on April 1, citing governance tensions ahead of the V4 development cycle, continues to weigh on market confidence in the near term.

Key Levels: Support, Resistance, and Price Targets

The immediate resistance is $94.12, the intraday ceiling since the April 6 breakdown. Above that, $100 is the key structural level bulls must reclaim to shift the near-term bias. A daily close above $100 is the minimum condition for a structural recovery attempt and the invalidation level for the current bearish thesis.

On the downside, $87.36 marks the 4H Supertrend level. A 4H close below it removes the last dynamic buffer and opens $77.97, the next annotated support on the chart. Below $77.97, the $51.38 level represents major structural support, territory AAVE has not traded near in several years.

Invalidation: a daily close above $100.

On-Chain and Market Data Context

According to Coinglass, AAVE open interest remained elevated in the sessions following the April 6 liquidation event, with the intraday crash to $83.92 triggering significant forced selling before a partial recovery to current levels. AAVE has underperformed the broader market over the past 30 days, down approximately 20% as DeFi sector sentiment deteriorated.

The BGD Labs departure and the earlier exit of the Aave Chan Initiative have left the protocol navigating its V4 transition without several of its original technical contributors. Governance risk now compounds price risk for holders ahead of what was meant to be Aave’s most significant upgrade cycle.

If AAVE fails to reclaim $94.12 on a closing basis in the near term, $77.97 becomes the primary downside target, with $51.38 the structural floor below.