So, the speculative cavalry-whom we shall call the ‘bulls’ for the sake of bureaucratic simplicity-have, with much clamor and stamping of hooves, burst forth from their three-month-long bear flag prison on a Monday. They have, in a fit of enthusiasm, grazed the lush pastures of $80,000. The question, of course, is whether this is a firm foothold upon the green grass of prosperity, or merely the final, dizzy spasms of a rally that has consumed its last ration of vodka.
A hold above the bear flag is critical
Observing the short-term chart-that sacred scroll of the initiated-one sees the price has, on a mere 4-hour candle, vaulted over the flag’s peak. It touched the sacred resistance of $80,600, then retreated, as all creatures of habit do, to test whether the breakout was not a mere hallucination. It now proposes the level of $79,500 as a potential new sanctuary. All, for now, appears well in the kingdom of charts.
What is now required is that the price hold its ground above the flag’s crest for two or three days. Even better would be a surge so violent that it leaves the flag a distant, laughable memory, providing ample room for the inevitable, sagacious retreat.
Could this be another small fakeout, a spectral apparition akin to that of April 22nd? But of course. In these times, momentum is a fickle mistress, prone to swooning at the slightest ill wind from distant, war-torn provinces.
Bulls not destined to be successful?
But zoom out, dear reader, to the daily time frame, and the true, tragicomic nature of the situation is revealed. If this be a breakout, we are witnessing its hesitant, trembling genesis. We shall not know until the day’s final bell whether the price shall close above the flag’s crown. Even now, it seems to be slinking back below, like a chastened clerk.
While a ‘golden cross’ has occurred-a spectral crossing of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs-the great giveaway, the smoking pistol, is the utter absence of any volume to baptize this breakout. No decent-sized volume bars have appeared. A breakout without volume is like a revolution without pamphlets: suspicious and likely to fizzle. A descending volume profile as prices rise is not a good sign; it is the sound of one hand clapping.
Finally, in this daily view, we observe the RSI indicator, that fickle diviner, has once again approached its descending trendline, a line of such venerable age it dates back to November 2024. Another rejection is not merely likely; it is, one might say, bureaucratically inevitable.
Weekly macro picture still negative
On the weekly chart, a faint glimmer: the price has breached the bear market trendline and left it in the dust. The RSI’s line peeks timidly through its own descending trendline, though it is early in the week, and hope is a dangerous thing.
Nevertheless, the negatives clatter about in their heavy boots, controlling the macro picture. The trend remains downward, and the price has thus far failed to breach the flag’s summit with any conviction.
The macro takeaway, scribbled in the margins of this chart, is that a rejection from the flag’s top is the most probable next scene. Does this presage a crash? Not necessarily. It may simply mean the price must now retreat to the flag’s bottom, there to contemplate its sins and gather strength for the next act.
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2026-05-04 12:44