Bitcoin is currently trading around $73,469. Despite this, May saw the largest monthly decrease in investments for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) so far in 2026, suggesting that large investors (‘whales’) and long-term Bitcoin holders are beginning to sell off their holdings.
Bitcoin’s recent performance suggests it might not follow the usual pattern of positive returns in June. The current market situation will determine if buyers hoping for seasonal gains, or sellers looking to profit, will drive prices in the coming month.
May ETF Outflows Break Bitcoin’s Two-Month Inflow Pattern
Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced $2.30 billion in net outflows in May. This marks the largest monthly decrease in investor money so far in 2026 and the biggest since November 2025.
After two months of gains, this represents a downturn. April and March saw net inflows of $1.97 billion and $1.32 billion, respectively.
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Bitcoin’s May performance was notable because, despite a small price decrease of only 3.69%, investors pulled out significantly more money than in February. The May outflow was about ten times larger than February’s $206 million, even though Bitcoin’s price dropped much more in February – nearly 15%.
It seems investors are reducing their risk exposure in the market more quickly than the recent price drops would indicate. Total net inflows have decreased from $58.09 billion in April to $55.79 billion. This is unusual, as Bitcoin typically performs well in June. Historically, the average return for Bitcoin in June has been positive at 2.58%, with only five months out of the last twelve experiencing losses.
A key factor in predicting Bitcoin’s price is the conflict between significant ETF selling and the typical positive performance seen this month. The way the price chart develops will likely reveal whether sellers or those buying due to seasonal trends will ultimately prevail.
Rising Channel After 38% Drop Risks a Bearish Breakdown
As a crypto investor, I’ve been watching Bitcoin closely, and it’s been trading in a pretty consistent upward channel since February 6th, 2026. This started right after a significant dip – about 38.63% – from its peak on January 13th. Basically, after that drop, it found support and has been steadily climbing within this channel ever since.
After a significant price decrease, a rising channel often suggests the trend will continue downwards, rather than signaling a strong, immediate increase. It usually leads to lower prices unless the price decisively breaks above the upper boundary of the channel.
Bitcoin attempted to break out in early May, but after briefly testing a key price level, it fell back down.
The price has fallen below both the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. These moving averages smooth out price fluctuations, giving more importance to the most recent prices.
The main concern now is the potential for a long-term shift in the market. On the three-day chart, the 100-day Exponential Moving Average is getting closer to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, which could signal a significant change in trend.
A drop below current levels could signal a more significant, long-term downward trend. If prices don’t stabilize quickly, they might fall to the next key support level. Therefore, it’s important to monitor what large cryptocurrency holders are doing, as their actions could indicate the next move.
Whales and Long-Term Holders Are Distributing
As a researcher, I’ve been looking at on-chain data, and it seems to support the idea that institutions are being cautious with their Bitcoin holdings. According to Glassnode, the number of Bitcoin ‘whales’ – those holding 1,000 BTC or more – reached its highest point on May 22nd, with 1,285 entities at that level.
The number of affected entities had decreased to 1,279 by May 28th. These six entities losing access represents at least 6,000 Bitcoin being sold off in about a week. Based on today’s prices, this equates to nearly $440 million in concentrated sales.
People who’ve held onto their coins for a long time are also starting to sell. The Hodler Net Position Change metric shows how much buying or selling is happening among those who’ve held their coins for at least 155 days.
The highest amount of Bitcoin traded reached 42,301 on May 24th. By May 28th, this number decreased by 7.69% to 39,049. This decline indicates that larger investors may be slowly selling some of their holdings in anticipation of June.
This trend supports analyst Benjamin Cowen’s prediction that Bitcoin hasn’t hit its lowest point yet. He believes there’s a good chance Bitcoin will reach a new low in 2026, specifically around October.
Investors who buy Bitcoin through ETFs, large Bitcoin holders, and those planning to hold for a long time are all currently selling some of their Bitcoin. This means the price chart will likely determine how Bitcoin performs in June.
Bitcoin Price Prediction and Key Levels to Watch for June 2026
Bitcoin’s next price movement hinges on whether it can rise above $73,869. If the price closes above this level for three consecutive days, it would likely reverse the current downward trend. This $73,869 mark represents a key support level that Bitcoin previously lost during its recent price drop.
If Bitcoin can break through the current resistance level, it could climb to around $77,877. A move past that would open the door to testing a higher resistance around $82,785 – a price level where it previously faced selling pressure in early May.
If the price doesn’t recover to $73,869, it could fall to around $70,342. A drop below that level might lead to a further decline to $68,348, which would be about a 7% decrease from the current price.
If the price continues to fall, it could soon test key support levels at $63,886 and $59,424. A bullish crossover of the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages might speed up a move towards these levels.
Whether Bitcoin’s price rises or falls in June depends on it regaining the $73,869 level. If it does, the upward trend could continue. If it doesn’t, it risks a decline and potentially a negative return for the month – something that rarely happens in June.
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2026-05-29 10:33