In late May 2026, Toncoin (TON) saw its price surge from $1.30 on April 28 to between $2.39 and $2.89 in about ten days. This dramatic increase was sparked by a single statement from Pavel Durov on May 4. Durov announced that Telegram, the messaging app with 950 million users, would take over as the main validator and driving force behind The Open Network, replacing the TON Foundation. This isn’t just a change in how things are governed; it’s Telegram – with its massive user base – fully integrating its entire platform with a single blockchain.
Summary
- Telegram’s takeover of TON as the network’s largest validator helped drive a rally from $1.30 to $2.89, supported by technical upgrades and new ecosystem developments.
- The bullish outlook depends on successful Telegram integration, stronger user adoption through TON Pay and Stars, and continued execution of the MTONGA roadmap.
- Regulatory setbacks, weak user adoption, or delays in Telegram’s rollout plans could keep TON under pressure and limit long-term growth.
The Catchain 2.0 update, finished in April 2026, made transactions on the network incredibly fast – reaching finality in just 0.6 seconds, which is among the quickest of any major blockchain. It also significantly lowered transaction costs, reducing them sixfold to $0.0005 per transaction. In the second quarter of 2026, TON Pay 2.0 will launch, enabling instant payments within apps. Around the middle of 2026, TON Teleport will be released, allowing Bitcoin to be used within the network. Finally, TON Tech introduced Agentic Wallets on April 28th, designed for AI agents that operate on the network.
The MTONGA plan, or “Make TON Great Again,” outlines Pavel Durov’s seven steps to fully connect Telegram with the TON blockchain. Belarus gave TON approval to operate as a licensed bank and provide custody services on May 14, 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, the network handled 1.5 billion transactions and reached a Total Value Locked (TVL) of $1.2 billion. For a short time, TON even saw higher daily transaction numbers than Solana.
As a crypto investor, I’m really excited about Telegram’s new ad platform. Basically, advertisers will be buying ad space using TON, the platform’s native crypto. What’s cool is that the channel owners – the people actually running the Telegram channels – will get half of the ad revenue *in TON*. It’s a nice incentive and builds demand for the coin. They’re also planning to expand Telegram Stars, which is another way to monetize, sometime in the third quarter of 2026.
The TON blockchain is unique because it’s already widely distributed, meaning it has a large user base. The main challenges now are whether the Telegram team can deliver on its promises, if users will actually start using TON for payments instead of just messaging, and whether legal issues in France will impact Telegram’s ability to operate smoothly.
In my research, I’ve outlined three potential scenarios for how this could play out: a bullish one, where it reaches $8 to $18 by 2030; a base case, projecting $3 to $6; and a more conservative, or bearish, case, ranging from $0.80 to $2. I’ve identified the key factors that will determine which of these scenarios becomes reality.
Why TON is at $2.50 right now
The price of Toncoin currently shows that investors are reacting to a major development: Telegram’s official plan to fully integrate with the TON network, which was announced on May 4th and 5th. This is seen as a significant event for the cryptocurrency world, with potential benefits expected in 2026.
On April 28, 2026, TON was trading around $1.30, a significant drop of 83% from its peak of $8.24 in June 2024. This decline was likely due to unclear connections between Telegram and TON, a general downturn in the altcoin market, and questions about the growth of the TON ecosystem. Despite strong usage numbers – 1.5 billion transactions and $1.2 billion in Total Value Locked (TVL) in the first quarter of 2026 – these gains hadn’t translated into a corresponding increase in the token’s price.
On May 4th, Pavel Durov announced a significant change: Telegram will now lead the development of the TON network and operate its largest validator node. This concise announcement signals a major shift in how TON is managed and supported, with Telegram taking direct control.
This isn’t just a change in how things are managed; it’s Telegram officially connecting its 950 million users to a blockchain. By becoming a validator, Telegram now has a financial interest in the success of the TON network. Instead of a community-led organization, Telegram will be the main force behind the network’s technical improvements, growth, and overall strategy.
TON coin saw a strong immediate reaction in the market, jumping from $1.35 to $1.59 with trading volume increasing by 324% to $309 million. This upward trend continued in the following days as traders reacted to recent changes. By May 7th, TON had climbed to $2.89, a gain of over 110% since closing at $1.35 on April 28th.
The Catchain 2.0 upgrade, finished in April 2026, significantly improved TON’s speed by finalizing blocks in just 0.6 seconds. This makes TON one of the fastest major blockchains, performing as well as or better than Solana (around 400ms) and Aptos/Sui (less than a second). This speed allows for applications that need transactions to settle almost instantly.
Transaction fees have been significantly reduced – by six times, down to just $0.0005 per transaction. This makes it possible to use small payments and apps that require many transactions, which wasn’t feasible before. The next version, TON Pay 2.0 (planned for release in the second quarter of 2026), aims to lower these costs even further, to less than $0.0005 per payment within Telegram.
As an analyst, I’ve been tracking the launch of Agentic Wallets by TON Tech on April 28, 2026. This is a significant move – they’re introducing an open standard that allows AI agents to operate directly on the TON blockchain. What’s particularly interesting is how this positions TON to capitalize on the growing intersection of AI and crypto, putting them in direct competition with projects like NEAR that are also targeting this space. Essentially, these wallets enable AI agents to make and execute transactions independently using TON’s existing infrastructure.
Pavel Durov, Telegram’s founder, has outlined a 7-step plan called the MTONGA roadmap to connect Telegram more closely with the TON blockchain. This plan is rolling out in stages: Catchain 2.0 is already finished, the transition to new validators is currently happening, and future steps include TON Pay 2.0 (expected in the second quarter of 2026), TON Teleport (integrating Bitcoin, mid-2026), and an expansion of Telegram Stars (Q3 2026), with further development continuing through 2026 and 2027.
As an analyst, I’m watching the regulatory landscape for TON closely. The recent approval in Belarus on May 14, 2026, allowing it for licensed banking and custody, is a significant development. It suggests we might see more positive regulatory rulings in other countries. Here in the US, the CLARITY Act offers a potential framework for classifying TON as a commodity, which would bring much-needed regulatory clarity.
In the first quarter of 2026, the TON network processed 1.5 billion transactions, temporarily exceeding Solana’s typical daily volume at its busiest times. This high activity is currently driven by features like Telegram mini-apps, Telegram Stars, and the Telegram ad platform, and doesn’t yet include the impact of the complete rollout of the MTONGA plan.
Telegram’s ad platform creates a self-sustaining cycle: Advertisers purchase ad space using the TON cryptocurrency, and channel owners earn 50% of that revenue, also in TON. This process naturally increases demand for TON with each ad bought, and the revenue shared with channel owners keeps TON circulating within the Telegram ecosystem. This demand isn’t based on speculation; it’s driven by actual ad purchases.
The recent price movement suggests a major shift is happening in the crypto market, particularly with TON. The upcoming changes planned for May 2026, driven by Telegram’s active development and its massive user base of 950 million, are being recognized by the market. The current price of around $2.50 shows some of this recognition, but also reflects some hesitation about how quickly these changes will be implemented. Further price increases will likely depend on the successful rollout of these planned updates.
The bull case: $8-$18 by 2030
For TON to see substantial growth, two things need to happen: the MTONGA roadmap must be fully implemented as planned, and a large number of users need to start actively using TON for transactions.
Telegram is proving successful at turning a significant portion of its 950 million monthly users into active participants in the TON network. Even a conservative estimate suggests that 10-20% of these users (95 to 190 million) could regularly use TON for transactions. This level of activity would generate considerable network usage and revenue from transaction fees. This conversion is being driven by features like TON Pay 2.0 for quick in-app payments, the growing use of Telegram Stars, integrations with mini-apps, and tools for creators.
The MTONGA project is on track, with all seven phases successfully implemented between 2026 and 2027. TON Pay 2.0, featuring smooth integration with Telegram, is planned for the second quarter of 2026. Around mid-2026, TON Teleport will introduce Bitcoin compatibility, expanding the network’s capabilities. Telegram Stars will be expanded in the third quarter of 2026 to increase transaction activity. Further development will continue as planned, delivering all promised features. This demonstrates Telegram’s ability to manage and execute complex technical projects.
TON Pay is rapidly growing, now processing billions of transactions each month. This high volume benefits those who maintain the network, generates revenue, and increases overall demand for TON. Telegram is becoming the world’s leading platform for everyday crypto payments, taking advantage of the limited crypto integration offered by apps like WhatsApp and Messenger.
Telegram’s advertising platform is growing rapidly. By offering more precise targeting options, new ad types, and tools for creators, it’s generating significantly more revenue. The use of TON, a cryptocurrency, for both ad purchases and creator payments creates a continuous cycle of demand that’s expected to grow substantially. We anticipate the platform’s annual advertising volume will increase from its current level to billions of dollars.
Telegram’s involvement as a validator demonstrates that established organizations can reliably run TON validators. These validators earn significant rewards – some reports suggest over 20% annually – which encourages more people to participate in staking. As more tokens are staked, it reduces the available supply, potentially impacting the market.
TON is gaining a significant foothold in the crypto market by attracting users from platforms like Solana and Ethereum’s layer-2 solutions. Its connection to Telegram is a major reason for this success, making it easier for everyday users to adopt. Unlike other blockchains focused on finance and institutions, TON is becoming the leading choice for general consumer crypto thanks to its integration with a popular messaging app.
Agentic Wallets allow AI programs to work directly on the TON blockchain. As AI becomes more popular and profitable, this gives TON a strong advantage thanks to its technology and access to Telegram’s large user base. This approach positions TON as a competitor to NEAR in the growing area of AI and cryptocurrency integration.
The CLARITY Act is bringing clearer rules for cryptocurrency in the US. Belarus has also given its approval for banking services, expanding its reach. Pavel Durov’s legal issues have been resolved positively, and this won’t affect Telegram or the TON network. These developments are paving the way for more traditional institutions to start investing in crypto, beyond just current crypto enthusiasts.
A TON ETF could follow a similar path to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs – meaning it could be filed, approved, and then make the TON cryptocurrency available to a wider range of investors, including large institutions and everyday retail investors, beyond those already involved in crypto.
If multiple bull case conditions materialize, the price targets are:
- 2026 year-end: $5-9
- 2027 year-end: $7-13
- 2028 year-end: $8-16
- 2029 year-end: $8-17
- 2030 year-end: $8-18
For the price to significantly increase, the project needs to consistently improve at attracting users, implementing its technology, growing its network, and dealing with regulations. Analysts generally predict a price between $6 and $15 within the next 2 to 4 years, assuming the integration with Telegram is successful and leads to a lot of new users and transactions.
Telegram Wallet has processed over $1 billion in perpetual futures trading volume in the last month, driven by the expanding TON ecosystem. The platform stands out with its low resource usage and offers both trading and transfers with no fees.
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) May 9, 2026
The base case: $3-$6 by 2030
From my analysis, our baseline scenario hinges on solid, though not exceptional, progress with the MTONGA roadmap, coupled with a reasonable rate of user conversion. We’re not projecting a runaway success, but a dependable and steady advancement.
Currently, Telegram turns between 3% and 8% of its 950 million monthly active users (roughly 28 to 76 million people) into regular users of TON transactions. While this is a positive sign, it’s not yet at the level needed for significant growth. We expect user adoption to increase steadily with the rollout of TON Pay 2.0 and the expansion of Stars.
The recent MTONGA launch experienced typical challenges, with most planned features taking longer or being adjusted during implementation. While TON Pay 2.0 is now live, its full release is happening over a longer period than initially expected. TON Teleport is available, but it’s taking time to fully integrate with Bitcoin. The Telegram Stars feature has expanded, but isn’t yet available to as many users as hoped.
Currently, TON Pay handles a significant amount of transactions, but it’s still lower than expected – hundreds of millions per month instead of billions. While revenue from transaction fees is increasing, it hasn’t yet reached a level that would represent a major breakthrough.
Telegram’s advertising platform is steadily generating revenue. While some advertisers are starting to use TON for payments and some channel owners are receiving a portion of their earnings in TON, growth isn’t happening rapidly. The system is working, but it’s not experiencing a sudden surge in popularity.
Telegram’s system for running and securing its network is working well, with existing validators continuing to function reliably. More organizations are joining as validators, and the amount of staked tokens is growing at a healthy pace, ensuring the system remains financially stable.
TON remains a key player for everyday crypto users, but it’s still competing with networks like Solana and Ethereum’s Layer 2s. While its share of the market isn’t shrinking, it’s not becoming the dominant force in consumer crypto either – it’s holding steady or growing a little.
AI-powered wallets are gaining some popularity, but the combination of AI and cryptocurrency is developing on various platforms. While TON is proving useful for certain applications, it isn’t currently the leading force in the AI agent space.
The legal landscape surrounding TON is slowly becoming clearer. While some places are allowing TON for limited purposes, Pavel Durov’s legal issues have been resolved without causing significant problems. Experts predict that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on TON could be approved around 2027 or 2028, though initial investment may be relatively small.
Base case targets:
- 2026 year-end: $2.50-4
- 2027 year-end: $3-4.50
- 2028 year-end: $3-5
- 2029 year-end: $3-5.50
- 2030 year-end: $3-6
From my analysis, we’re seeing a solid base of support around the current $2.50 price point, and I expect continued price fluctuations as new developments unfold. While things like the Telegram integration and broader ecosystem growth are positive, they haven’t yet triggered a significant price increase – but they’re definitely contributing to the stability we’re observing.
The TON Foundation has teamed up with Scrypt Swiss to make it easier for banks, fintech companies, and payment services to use USDT on the TON network. This partnership builds a new system specifically designed for these institutions.
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) April 8, 2026
The bear case: $0.80-$2 by 2030
A negative outlook on MTONGA would depend on problems specific to Telegram itself, or if the plan simply doesn’t get carried out effectively.
Durov is facing increasing legal challenges in France and potentially elsewhere, which could severely limit Telegram’s operations in key markets. This external pressure also hinders Telegram’s ability to promote and integrate its TON cryptocurrency.
Despite having a large user base of 950 million monthly active users, Telegram hasn’t successfully translated that into significant activity on the TON blockchain. Most Telegram users stick to messaging and don’t utilize the crypto features. Even with the launch of TON Pay 2.0, adoption rates remain low, suggesting the large user number doesn’t reliably indicate interest in cryptocurrency.
The MTONGA project is experiencing setbacks: planned features are being delayed, scaled back, or aren’t meeting quality standards. Telegram’s engineers are finding it difficult to build the necessary blockchain technology, leading to delays in the project’s overall timeline.
Solana is gaining popularity in the crypto world by offering faster transactions, more readily available trading options, and a wider range of apps. Eventually, platforms like WhatsApp or Messenger are expected to introduce their own crypto features, benefiting from their massive user base. This increased competition will likely diminish Telegram-TON’s current standing in the market.
Telegram is changing its plans regarding its involvement with the TON blockchain. They are lessening their commitment to integrating with TON and are now exploring other options, including a potential new blockchain project (Telegram Open Network 2.0), working with multiple blockchains, or even leaving the crypto space altogether. As a result, the planned changes for validators are being put on hold or altered significantly.
As a researcher observing the network, I’ve noticed a worrying trend: validator participation is dropping, especially as larger, institutional validators leave. This is causing staking rewards to fall – the initial rates of over 20% APR simply aren’t holding up. Frankly, this decrease in participation is raising concerns about the overall security of the network.
AI agents haven’t seen widespread use of ‘agentic wallets,’ meaning these wallets aren’t gaining much traction. Instead, platforms like NEAR, specifically designed for AI, are leading the way in combining AI and cryptocurrency. This leaves TON in a position where it’s offering similar features to others, rather than standing out as unique.
Things are getting tougher for crypto regulations: the CLARITY Act isn’t moving forward, and international pressure is building on apps that let people use cryptocurrency. Telegram is specifically running into trouble with its crypto features, and it looks like approval for crypto ETFs is either on hold for the foreseeable future or won’t happen at all.
Problems with the technology are happening: new versions of Catchain, or updates to it, aren’t working smoothly after they’re launched. When the network goes down, users can’t access the service. Security breaches are eroding user confidence. The underlying technology that’s meant to encourage people to use the system is showing weaknesses.
The overall crypto market is weakening, and smaller cryptocurrencies like TON are being affected more severely. When investors become risk-averse, everyday uses for cryptocurrencies tend to decline.
Bear case targets:
- 2026 year-end: $0.90-1.80
- 2027 year-end: $0.80-1.80
- 2028 year-end: $0.80-1.90
- 2029 year-end: $0.80-1.95
- 2030 year-end: $0.80-2
A pessimistic outlook for TON suggests a considerable price drop from where it is now, but still assumes the network will maintain some relevance. For the price to fall below $0.50, two things would need to happen: Telegram would have to stop supporting TON completely, and the overall market conditions would have to worsen significantly.
The five variables that determine outcome
Five specific variables determine which scenario materializes.
The launch and widespread use of TON Pay 2.0 (expected in the second quarter of 2026) is currently the most crucial factor for success. A successful launch, with many people using it, would prove that integrating Telegram with TON is a good strategy. If the launch is delayed or doesn’t gain much traction, it could indicate problems with execution. We’ll be tracking announcements about TON Pay 2.0, how many users sign up, the number of transactions made through it, how many businesses start accepting it, and how well it works with Telegram.
Here’s an update on the TON roadmap: The initial steps are being implemented as planned. Catchain 2.0 is finished, and the validator transition is currently underway. Key features like TON Pay 2.0 and TON Teleport are expected around mid-2026, followed by the expansion of Telegram Stars in the third quarter of 2026.
Here’s an update on the TON roadmap: The initial Catchain 2.0 phase is finished, and the validator transition is currently underway. Key future milestones include TON Pay 2.0 (expected in the second quarter of 2026), TON Teleport (mid-2026), and the expansion of Telegram Stars (third quarter of 2026). We’ll be tracking progress by monitoring Pavel Durov’s public announcements, technical updates, milestone completion dates, and the quality of new features.
Turning Telegram users into active TON network users is key to long-term success. While Telegram has 950 million monthly active users, it’s the number who actually make transactions on the TON blockchain that really matters. We should track things like the number of active wallets on TON, how often people use apps within Telegram (mini-apps), the volume of Stars token transactions, how many people are using the ad platform, and general activity on the TON blockchain to measure this.
The shift of validator duties from Telegram to the TON Foundation is currently happening. To encourage participation in staking, the system aims to offer validators good financial incentives. We’re keeping a close watch on how many validators are participating, whether the staking rewards remain stable, how much TON is being staked overall, if any new large organizations become validators, and when this transition will be fully completed.
Factor five is the legal and regulatory landscape surrounding Telegram and TON. This includes Pavel Durov’s legal status, the impact of the CLARITY Act on how TON is classified, gaining approvals in different countries (similar to Belarus), and broader international regulations. We need to keep track of any legal issues involving Durov, official announcements about Telegram’s regulations, approvals or restrictions for TON in various countries, and any developments with ETF applications.
These factors all strongly influence each other. Successful implementation of TON Pay 2.0 leads to more users. The planned development of MTONGA demonstrates Telegram’s dedication to the project. How validators are compensated impacts the network’s safety. Clear regulations will encourage more institutions to use the platform. Ultimately, attracting new users drives demand, which affects all aspects of the network.
The value of $TON has rapidly increased, doubling in just four days from $3.6 billion to $7.3 billion, likely due to Telegram’s growing influence over the network.
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) May 7, 2026
What this means for TON holders and traders
The recent announcement that Telegram will take over in May 2026 has fundamentally changed TON. For those who already own TON, this means the asset’s structure is now very different. We can use a five-point system to track whether the MTONGA plan is working as expected. While the current price shows some recognition of these changes, further price increases are likely if the plan is successfully implemented.
If you’re considering buying TON, the current price of $2.50 likely reflects a stable value after the recent news about its foundational changes. Whether it’s a good investment depends on how confident you are in the successful implementation of MTONGA and its ability to attract users. TON has a significant advantage because of its distribution through Telegram, but its success hinges on Telegram’s ability to build and maintain complex blockchain technology.
For traders, TON has proven to react strongly to positive news – it increased over 110% in value within 10 days of a recent announcement. To profit from these price swings, keep an eye on updates from Pavel Durov, key technical release dates, and how many people are actually using TON. This kind of volatility can be profitable, but also carries risk.
For institutional investors considering investing in TON, its key benefit is access to growing consumer use of cryptocurrency, largely driven by its connection with Telegram. The potential success of this investment relies on the idea that integrating crypto into popular messaging apps can lead to widespread, long-term adoption. Recent approval from Belarusian banks and the CLARITY Act offer a clear path for regulatory compliance. Like other cryptocurrencies, TON could become available through ETFs in the future, following established patterns.
As a researcher following TON, I’m seeing clear signs that Telegram is working to make using crypto much easier for its users. Specifically, their plans for TON Pay 2.0, expected around the second quarter of 2026, and an expansion of Telegram Stars in the third quarter of that year, will give people direct ways to interact with TON. These improvements could really open up crypto to a wider audience by making it more user-friendly than what’s currently available.
The honest bottom line
Pavel Durov revealed on May 4th that Telegram, rather than the TON Foundation, would be directly managing the TON blockchain. This announcement caused TON’s value to increase significantly within two days. The market reacted not to a change in leadership, but to the fact that Telegram – a messaging app with 950 million users – was officially connecting its future development to a single blockchain. The next key test is TON Pay 2.0. If it launches in the second quarter of the year and a substantial number of Telegram users adopt it for payments, the recent price increase could be just the start. However, if the launch is delayed or doesn’t gain much use, $2.50 likely represents the highest price TON will reach.
The changes coming to Telegram in May 2026 are a huge deal. Pavel Durov announced that Telegram will now take over as the main validator and driving force behind TON, bringing its 950 million users directly into the blockchain ecosystem. This is something new for the crypto world – no other blockchain has such a large, built-in user base thanks to an already popular platform.
Catchain 2.0 offers competitive technology, achieving transaction speeds as fast as or faster than leading blockchains like Solana, Aptos, and Sui. With transaction costs of just $0.0005, it also makes very small payments feasible. The upcoming TON Pay 2.0 will let Telegram users send and receive payments directly within the app. This strong technical base positions the platform for wider consumer use.
Several significant risks could impact Telegram and its associated technologies. These include potential legal issues for Pavel Durov in France, which could disrupt Telegram’s operations. Getting users to actively use TON, even with wide distribution, might be challenging. The success of the MTONGA roadmap depends on Telegram reliably building and launching complicated blockchain technology on time. Furthermore, Telegram faces competition from established blockchains like Solana and newer, user-friendly options. Finally, any changes in Telegram’s overall strategy could affect its commitment to the TON project.
The potential price of the asset in 2030 varies significantly, from $0.80 to $18, depending on how key factors play out. Our most likely scenario sees a price between $3 and $6, which would be a good increase from the current $2.50, if the MTONGA project goes well and attracts a reasonable number of users. A more optimistic scenario, with prices between $8 and $18, would require a large number of new users and flawless technical performance. Conversely, a pessimistic scenario, with prices between $0.80 and $2, would occur if the project fails or faces regulatory issues.
The way TON is distributed is now working well. However, it’s still unclear if Telegram can build and launch its blockchain technology as planned. Telegram has a clear edge in distribution, but successfully implementing the technology will be a major challenge. The next half-year to a year will be critical in determining if Telegram can meet its promised deadlines for MTONGA.
The upcoming launch of TON Pay 2.0 is a key factor to watch. If it successfully launches in the second quarter of 2026 and gains significant user traction, it will support the idea that its integration is working well. However, any delays or a limited rollout would suggest potential problems with its implementation.
Turning users into active participants is key to long-term success. While we have a large potential audience of 950 million monthly active users, consistent engagement and regular transactions with the TON token will ultimately decide if our initial growth leads to lasting demand.
The biggest risk for Telegram comes from potential regulatory issues. Negative rulings could interrupt their services and impact the integration with TON. A positive outcome, however, would ease concerns and encourage more investment from institutions.
Looking ahead to 2026, TON is projected to trade between $2 and $5. Key factors that could drive this include the launch of TON Pay 2.0, progress on the MTONGA roadmap, how many people start using it, and any news related to Pavel Durov. The current price support of $2 to $2.50 is tied to its integration with Telegram. If TON Pay 2.0 is successful and gains significant user adoption, the price could potentially rise to $4-$7.
Between 2027 and 2030, several key factors will either work together for success or create challenges. If we consistently deliver on our plans, attract new users, maintain a healthy network, and achieve clear regulations, we expect significant growth. Conversely, setbacks in these areas could lead to a decline. Our most likely scenario anticipates a combination of positive and negative results, still leading to substantial gains.
The success of TON ultimately hinges on whether a messaging app like Telegram can drive widespread, long-term use of cryptocurrency. Initial results are encouraging, with 1.5 billion transactions in the first quarter of 2026, $1.2 billion in total value locked, and increasing revenue from advertising. While significant challenges remain, they are clearly defined. The coming months will reveal if TON can capitalize on its massive user base of 950 million monthly active users to become a leading crypto platform for everyday consumers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened with Pavel Durov’s TON announcement?
On May 4, 2026, Telegram’s CEO, Pavel Durov, announced that Telegram would take over the development of The Open Network (TON) and become its main validator. This means Telegram’s 950 million users will now be directly connected to the TON blockchain. As a result of this announcement, TON’s value quickly increased, jumping from $1.30 on April 28th to $2.89 on May 7th – a gain of over 110% in just ten days.
Can Toncoin reach $10 by 2030?
The optimistic price prediction for 2030 is $10, falling within a range of $8 to $18. This relies on several key things happening: a successful launch of TON Pay 2.0 in the second quarter of 2026 with widespread use, progress on all seven steps of the MTONGA roadmap, a large number of Telegram’s 950 million users becoming active on the TON network, growth in transaction volume through Telegram Stars, sustainable growth in how validators operate, and a supportive regulatory landscape for institutional investors. A more likely, or ‘base case’, price prediction for 2030 is $3 to $6.
What is the MTONGA roadmap?
As a researcher following Telegram and TON, I’ve been tracking what Pavel Durov calls ‘MTONGA’ – essentially his plan to deeply connect Telegram with the TON blockchain. It’s a seven-step process, and we’ve already seen the first step, the Catchain 2.0 upgrade, completed in April 2026. Currently, the transition to new validators is underway. Looking ahead, we can expect TON Pay 2.0 around the second quarter of 2026, followed by TON Teleport, which aims to bring Bitcoin liquidity into the TON ecosystem, around mid-2026. Telegram Stars will also be expanded in the third quarter of 2026, with further development planned throughout 2026 and 2027.
How does TON’s 0.6-second finality compare to other chains?
Catchain 2.0 has made TON one of the fastest major blockchains, achieving block finality in just 0.6 seconds. For comparison, Solana aims for 150ms (currently around 400ms), while Aptos and Sui are under a second. Ethereum Layer 1 takes about 12 seconds, and Bitcoin around 10 minutes. This speed on TON allows for applications needing immediate transactions and supports very small payments with fees as low as $0.0005.
What are the main risks to TON’s bull case?
There are six main risks to consider: First, legal issues involving Pavel Durov could disrupt Telegram. Second, attracting enough users to make the platform sustainable might fail. Third, the planned development of MTONGA could be significantly delayed or scaled back. Fourth, competitors like Solana or new blockchain platforms could gain an advantage. Fifth, changes in Telegram’s overall strategy could reduce its support for TON. Finally, new regulations impacting Telegram or TON specifically could create problems.
What is TON Pay 2.0?
TON Pay 2.0 is a significant upgrade to TON’s payment network, built for use within Telegram. It’s designed to make sending and receiving money – both between individuals and to businesses – incredibly fast and inexpensive, with a goal of costing less than half a cent per transaction. Planned for release in the second quarter of 2026, it will allow Telegram’s large user base of over a billion people to easily make very small payments.
How does TON compare to Solana for consumer crypto?
Solana and TON are both designed for applications that need to handle a lot of activity quickly. Solana currently has a stronger position in decentralized finance (DeFi) with $5.5 billion in value locked in, compared to TON’s $1.2 billion, and has seen more interest from institutional investors, including the launch of exchange-traded funds. Solana also has a longer history. However, TON benefits from being integrated with Telegram, which has 950 million monthly active users – a huge potential user base that Solana lacks. TON also has a firm commitment from a major tech company to run its validators and boasts very fast transaction finality with its Catchain 2.0 technology. Ultimately, these two platforms are appealing to different types of crypto users.
Should I buy TON given the recent rally?
Just to be clear, I’m sharing my thoughts, not giving financial advice. Right now, the price around $2.50 feels like a bit of a reset after the planned changes in May 2026. If the team delivers on their promises and gets more users, the price could really go up – that’s the potential. But there’s also risk; if things don’t go as planned, or if there are legal issues with Durov, the price could fall. I’m personally tracking five key things to help me decide if it’s still a good investment. It’s up to each of us to weigh the potential gains against the risks.
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2026-05-29 15:49