Anthony Pompliano Debunks Bitcoin Rally Hopes Tied To Trump’s Win

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As a seasoned crypto investor with a few years under my belt, I find Pompliano’s insights on Bitcoin’s price dynamics and market trends intriguing. His dismissal of the notion that Trump’s win would trigger a significant BTC rally aligns with my perspective. While political developments can influence public sentiment and market speculation, they don’t necessarily dictate long-term price movements for Bitcoin.

As a cryptocurrency analyst, I’ve recently observed the ongoing speculation linking Donald Trump’s presidential victory with a potential Bitcoin (BTC) rally. However, in my latest CNBC interview, I took a different stance from those making such claims. Instead of attributing a significant BTC price surge solely to Trump’s election win, I highlighted other factors that could contribute to a Bitcoin rebound.

Pompliano Ditches Notion Of Bitcoin Rally On Trump Win

In the opinion of Pompliano, it’s not political decisions that primarily drive Bitcoin’s price fluctuations, but instead, it’s broader market trends and the passage of time. Regarding regulatory issues in the US, Pompliano viewed the current political situation as having both positive and negative implications for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

As an analyst, I’ve observed that former President Donald Trump has shifted his stance on Bitcoin, with him now advocating for it as a pro-Bitcoin figurehead. This development aligns with the experience of many Bitcoin supporters, who have also seen their views on the cryptocurrency evolve over time. Additionally, Pompliano brought attention to the internal struggle within the Democratic party regarding Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.

“Democrats find themselves in a dilemma,” he pointed out. On one hand, some Democrats are attempting to win over crypto supporters by taking bold actions such as supporting the SAB 121 revocation bill. On the other hand, notable Democratic figures like Senator Elizabeth Warren and President Joe Biden have expressed opposition to cryptocurrencies.

As an analyst, I’ve observed that during elections, the public often makes decisions based on their financial interests. In recent times, this has translated to support for cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin in particular. Consequently, I believe those who identify as “crypto voters” will be inclined to back pro-crypto presidential and Senate candidates. This inclination increases the likelihood of candidates like Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who have openly expressed their pro-crypto stance, securing victories.

Regarding a potential Bitcoin rally following Trump’s election win, Pompliano stressed that the primary driver of Bitcoin’s expansion is actually time, not political events. The historical trend suggests that Bitcoin often thrives during late-year periods, particularly after the sluggish summer months have passed. In other words, as we approach September and beyond, this historical pattern may be enough to boost Bitcoin’s price once again.

Remarks On German Government Selloff & Bitcoin ETFs

In his most recent interview with CNBC, Pompliano addressed the current state of Bitcoin’s price. He attributed the recent price drops mainly to an imbalance between those selling and those buying. Two significant sellers were pinpointed as contributing factors: The German government liquidating seized Bitcoins obtained from a pirate website, and Mt. Gox creditors receiving their Bitcoin payouts.

As a researcher studying the Bitcoin market, I’d like to highlight that despite the German government selling their Bitcoin stash, the overall market remains relatively ill-liquid in nature. The majority of Bitcoin is held by individual investors with a long-term investment strategy. This illiquidity implies that a small number of sellers can have a substantial impact on price movements.

“Prices decrease when there are more sellers than buyers, as Pompliano pointed out. The intriguing aspect is identifying who is selling. So far, Bitberg (German company) has disposed of approximately $1.5 billion from their $2.5 billion Bitcoin holdings. Remarkably, the market’s reaction to these sales has been relatively robust.”

As a crypto investor, I would interpret someone predicting the sale of billions of dollars and the subsequent price drop to $55,000 as a sign of confidence in Bitcoin’s resilience. People are arguing that despite this dip, Bitcoin remains robust. Regarding Bitcoin’s illiquidity, Pompliano mentioned that at the beginning of the year, more than 70% of Bitcoin had not been moved for over a year. This suggests that strong hands are holding onto their Bitcoins. I anticipate that as the bull market continues, this percentage will decrease as more investors choose to enter or sell their holdings.

Institutional Adoption Of BTC ETFs

As a researcher studying the Bitcoin market, I’ve found that approximately 50-55% of this cryptocurrency is held by individuals with a long-term investment horizon of ten years or more. Regarding Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), I acknowledge their presence and influence on the market. However, it’s essential to note that their impact should not be overestimated as a sole driving force behind Bitcoin’s price movements.

According to Pompliano’s prediction, institutional investors are set to significantly boost their involvement in the market starting from the second half of the year. With retail investors already accounting for 80% of the current market flows, this increase in institutional participation could potentially lead to further growth in Bitcoin’s price.

As a researcher studying trends in the financial sector, I’ve observed an intriguing development: institutions such as City State Bank, Northwest Capital Management, and Bank of New Hampshire have recently disclosed investments in Blackrock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale’s GBTC ETF. In the first quarter of FY24 alone, these ETFs experienced a massive influx of institutional capital to the tune of $10 billion.

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2024-07-10 18:16