As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade of experience under my belt, I must admit that the recent analysis by IntoTheBlock has piqued my interest. Historically, Bitcoin’s halving events have been followed by substantial price increases, and if this pattern holds true, we might be in for a significant rally in 2025.
Based on findings from IntoTheBlock’s latest study on blockchain data, there seems to be an indication that Bitcoin could experience a substantial increase in value around 2025, according to its past patterns.
Based on data from IntoTheBlock, historically, there’s been an average gap of about 480 days between Bitcoin’s halving events and their subsequent price peaks. This trend suggests that the next potential peak might occur during the summer of 2025.
As a crypto investor, I eagerly anticipate the halving events that take place approximately every four years for Bitcoin. These events trim down the compensation for mining fresh blocks by half. The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024, at block height 840,000. Prior to this, the reward for mining a single Bitcoin block was 6.25 BTC, but after the halving, it was reduced to 3.125 BTC.
This diagram illustrates the yield during each phase when Bitcoin’s supply is reduced:
— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) September 7, 2024
Historically, after a halving event, there tends to be a significant rise in Bitcoin’s price due to a decrease in the amount of fresh Bitcoin being introduced into circulation, which typically boosts its demand.
Over the recent period, Bitcoin’s value has dropped by approximately 12% from its halving price of $63,900. This drop may appear disheartening in the short run, but it isn’t uncommon. Previous cycles have also gone through phases where there was consolidation or minor decreases before the market regained strength for a substantial surge.
Based on the current market trends, it seems like we’re entering a phase where investors and big players might be preparing for an upward move by stockpiling assets, in anticipation of a potential price increase.
Bitcoin faces bearish September
As I write this, Bitcoin had experienced a decrease of 0.26% over the past 24 hours, bringing its value down to $54,398. Historically, September has been a tough month for U.S. stocks and digital currencies like Bitcoin, and the early price trends this year seem to support that idea.
Over the past month, Bitcoin’s value has dropped by approximately 8%, surpassing its usual decline of 5% over a decade. Interestingly, September is one of only two months since 2013 that have seen an average decrease in Bitcoin’s price. The other negative month with significant price movement is June. On average, Bitcoin experiences more losses in September than any other month during the past ten years.
Despite experiencing a drop in September, it’s common for Bitcoin to bounce back, with October being a traditionally strong month, often referred to as “Uptober”. Since 2013, on average, Bitcoin has decreased by 5% in September, followed by a significant rise of around 22% in October and an even more substantial increase of approximately 46% in November, during the 2021 crypto market bull run.
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2024-09-08 18:26