As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience in this rollercoaster market, I can’t help but feel a familiar sense of deja vu when reading about the potential Bitcoin crash to $49,000. The technical analysis and on-chain metrics are aligning like dominoes, each falling one by one, and it seems we’re in for another wild ride.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin has dropped by 0.62% and stands at approximately $55,800. Based on technical and chain analysis, a significant drop in Bitcoin’s value to around $49,000 is predicted to happen. Experts foresee this potential fall could take place over the weekend.
Bitcoin Price Could Crash to $49,000: Arthur Hayes
Over the last seven days, it appears Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is waning. Each attempt to surge higher has been countered by an equally strong wave of selling, causing quick reversals. As corrections occur, buyers seem to be relinquishing control while sellers are gaining traction, suggesting that the bears might be dominating the market.
Arthur Hayes, BitMEX’s ex-CEO, shares a similar viewpoint regarding Bitcoin. He predicts a potential drop in BTC prices falling below $50,000 this weekend. Moreover, he has taken a short position on Bitcoin as it appears “heavy” to him and anticipates further decline below the mentioned price point over the weekend.
As a researcher examining Bitcoin’s current market trends, I anticipate a potential drop below the $50k mark by the end of this weekend. I’ve decided to take a cautious short position, though I acknowledge that it could be considered risky, given my unconventional trading approach. So, let me remind you all to wish me luck, for I am indeed venturing into the realm of the daring and unorthodox trader.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) September 6, 2024
This opinion aligns with technical analysis findings and also corroborates from on-chain statistics, suggesting that Bitcoin could potentially plummet to around $49,000.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Market Structure Flips Bearish
Previously proposed theories about Bitcoin’s recovery rally have been challenged as it dropped below the crucial support level of $56,963. This decline marked a new lower low, indicating that the negative trend may persist. If Bitcoin prices continue to drop, the next significant support is anticipated at approximately $54,676, which is around 2% lower than its current value.
In simpler terms, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the 50 median level has not been successfully flipped, supporting the negative perspective. Similarly, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) hints at a similar prediction, suggesting a scarcity of bullish energy.
If the demand to sell Bitcoin grows stronger, it might push the price below the $54,676 mark and potentially drop toward the significant $50,000 threshold. Such a decline could represent a nearly 10% fall in Bitcoin’s value.
Even though transitioning to this whole number level might reduce some stress, it’s unlikely that sidelined buyers will make their move here. Instead, keep a close eye on the weekly support zone, spanning from $43,789 to $41,374. This area acted as a foundation that propelled Bitcoin’s price to an unprecedented high of $73,800, making it a highly probable reversal point.
Based on Glassnode’s analysis, it appears that many short-term investors are experiencing substantial losses, as indicated by the high levels of unrealized losses shown in the Short-Term Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. This trend has intensified over the past few months, suggesting a significant decrease in market strength. The current average cost for these short-term holdings is approximately $62,400. Until this level is surpassed again, it’s likely that we’ll continue to see a prolonged period of market weakness.
Bitcoin Whale Sells $32 Million Worth BTC in 24 Hours
On top of existing concerns, market maker Wintermute transferred approximately 244 BTC ($13.7 million) to Binance and 101 BTC ($5.67 million) to Bitfinex on September 6. As per data provider Arkham, Wintermute has deposited around 575 BTC ($32.34 million) in the last 24 hours. This pessimistic view coincides with technical analysis and on-chain indicators, suggesting a possible imminent drop in Bitcoin prices.
Regardless of indications suggesting a downward trend, an unexpected surge in buying intensity might push Bitcoin over the $60,000 symbolic barrier, potentially reversing the scenario. This sudden increase could trigger a brief upswing in optimistic energy, possibly driving Bitcoin’s price to reach $62,400.
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2024-09-06 13:54