Bitcoin’s $80K Make-or-Break Moment: Will It Finally Explode?

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<a href="https://jpyxx.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> stalls near $80,000. Stocks and ETF inflows still point to a breakout.

What to know:

This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter ‘Daybook.’Sign up here, if you haven’t already.

Bitcoin’s price has dipped slightly to $79,000 after briefly reaching over $80,000 earlier today. Currently, it’s still showing a 0.4% increase over the past 24 hours.

The CoinDesk 20 Index increased by 0.4%, while ether (ETH) saw a nearly 1% gain. XRP and solana (SOL) also experienced slight increases.

According to analysts at Marex, the level map matters more right now than the narrative.

According to a recent email, breaking above 80,000 would likely signal a strong upward trend with potential for further gains. However, if the price falls back down after attempting to break this level, it suggests the price will likely remain within its current trading range, potentially leading to some investors selling to take profits around the mid-70s.

Traders are closely watching to see if actual buying interest continues to drive prices up, or if the recent price changes are mainly due to traders adjusting their positions.

With positive trends in global markets and continued investment, there’s a good chance Bitcoin will decisively rise above $80,000.

According to Marex analysts, the market is showing clear positive momentum. Stock prices are up thanks to strong earnings from major companies and excitement around artificial intelligence, and that’s also boosting cryptocurrency. Importantly, large institutional investors are actively buying again.

Recent significant investment into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) suggests that investors are actively buying into the recent price increase, rather than betting against it, according to analysts. Marex Crypto is part of Marex Group plc, a broader financial services company focused on institutional clients.

U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on spot Bitcoin saw over $600 million in new investment on Friday, according to SoSoValue. This continues a strong trend of interest from institutions, which have invested a total of $3.29 billion in these funds over the last two months.

Digital asset trading firm QCP Capital, based in Singapore, reported continued positive investment into spot ETFs, with net inflows of around $163 million last week. Although there were some outflows between April 27th and 29th, likely due to routine month-end adjustments and trading strategies, a significant inflow of approximately $630 million on Friday more than compensated for these earlier decreases.

Even with the supportive backdrop, analysts noted a few key risks that could pose headwinds.

The recent gains in the market could be threatened if conflict between the U.S. and Iran escalates. Although they’ve been negotiating for weeks without success, the situation remains tense, and any trouble affecting oil shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz could significantly impact energy markets.

U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that he may place taxes on countries that continue to buy oil from Iran.

According to Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, global trade is becoming more divided as tensions rise. The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China if it keeps buying oil from Iran, and China has pushed back against this. Adding to these issues, President Trump has increased tariffs on cars imported from the European Union, further straining relations between the U.S. and Europe.

Second, persistent security risks in decentralized finance (DeFi) threaten widespread adoption.

Right now, things are pretty simple: stocks are doing well, more money is flowing into ETFs, and Bitcoin is benefiting from both of those trends. I’m keeping a close watch on everything, though – things can change quickly in this market!

Today’s signal

The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price swings in candlestick format.

This morning, Bitcoin briefly reached a high of $80,619, a key resistance level. This is where the selling pressure paused in November, allowing the price to recover.

If the price clearly rises above this point, it will suggest the recent recovery is part of a larger upward trend, and could lead to a price of $85,000. But if it fails to break through, the price increase might stop, and we could see prices fall again.

BTC, therefore, is at a make or break level.

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2026-05-04 14:33