As a seasoned researcher with years of experience observing economic trends and their impact on various markets, I find myself intrigued by this latest development in the job market and its potential implications for Bitcoin. The surge in odds for a 50-basis rate cut, coupled with the cooling labor market, paints a picture that’s both familiar and novel.
Based on the data from Polymarket, it appears that the likelihood of a 0.5% interest rate reduction has significantly increased, now standing at approximately 40%. Two days prior, this probability was only 20%
Based on short-term interest rate futures, it’s more probable that there will be a reduction of 0.5% (50 basis points) rather than a reduction of 0.25% (25 basis points)
After the publication of the July JOLTS report, which revealed a drop in the job opening rate to 4.7%, there was an increase in future market activity. Simultaneously, the rate of layoffs slightly rose to 1.2%
According to Nick Bunker, research director at Indeed, today’s data indicates that the slowdown in the labor market may not have been as severe as the July jobs report implied. However, it’s important to note that the labor market was indeed cooling down
According to Daniel Zhao, the lead economist at Glassnode, there seems to be a general decline or slowdown, which he refers to as an “overall cooling trend.”
The market is now preparing for the August jobs report, which will be published on Friday.
Now that the hot jobs market is over, US workers find it increasingly difficult to get hired.
An unusually high growth pace might indicate good news for Bitcoin, the top digital currency in terms of market value
The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $57,461, according to CoinGecko data.
According to a report from U.Today, Arthur Hayes, who used to lead BitMEX, recently suggested that the value of Bitcoin might drop down to around $50,000, contrary to his earlier prediction that the digital currency would restart its upward trend in September
However, the Fed’s dovishness could be a major bullish catalyst for the risk asset.
Conversely, bulls often have less optimism as September is historically a challenging month for Bitcoin’s performance
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2024-09-04 19:16