Key Takeaways:
- TON at $1.888, up 37% on May 5.
- Telegram replaces Swiss-based TON Foundation as primary operator.
- Telegram becomes largest validator: staking 2.2M TON.
- Transaction fees cut sixfold to 0.00039 TON per transaction.
- Block production: 400ms after Catchain 2.0 upgrade April 9.
- RSI: 75.68, overbought on 1H chart.
- Spot volume: Heating classification on May 5 per CryptoQuant.
- Returns to Telegram’s original 2018 blockchain vision.
This Is Not a Leadership Change
For five days leading up to May 5th, Toncoin’s price stayed relatively stable, fluctuating between $1.30 and $1.35. However, after Pavel Durov made an announcement, the price quickly jumped from $1.35 to a peak of $1.895 – a 40% increase triggered by that single event. Currently, TON is trading at $1.888.
As a researcher following the TON Network, I’ve noticed a significant shift beyond just price changes. Telegram is now taking over as the main operator from the Swiss-based TON Foundation. They’re essentially becoming the biggest player on the network, committing around 2.2 million TON as a stake. They’ve even given this move a catchy name: “Make TON Great Again.”
Describing this as simply a change in leadership doesn’t capture the bigger picture. Telegram has around 950 million users, and the TON blockchain’s strength lies in being easily accessible through Telegram’s Mini Apps. Previously, Telegram simply helped distribute a blockchain run by an independent Swiss organization. Now, Telegram is directly running the blockchain itself. This isn’t just a change in how things are governed; it’s a fundamental shift where Telegram is now in complete control of both the product and the underlying technology – a complete integration of everything at the core level.
Fees in TON have dropped 6× — to nearly zero.
Telegram is now taking over as the main force behind the TON network, replacing the TON Foundation and becoming its biggest validator.
The focus shifts to tech superiority.
New , new dev tools, new performance upgrades.…
— Pavel Durov (@durov)
Fee Cut, 400ms Blocks, and a Developer Roadmap Already in Motion
The changes to how things work, which were announced, are already happening in some areas and are being put into effect.
Transaction fees have been significantly reduced – now costing around 0.00039 TON (about $0.0005). This makes small payments, like microtransactions and tipping within Telegram, much more practical for users. Before, a three-cent fee made these small payments difficult, but now, at half a cent per transaction, they’re easily affordable.
After the Catchain 2.0 update on April 9th, blocks are now produced in just 400 milliseconds. This near-instant confirmation speed makes the platform ideal for quick and responsive Mini Apps, delivering an experience similar to what users expect from messaging apps. Essentially, a blockchain that confirms transactions this quickly is practical for use within a chat application – slower confirmation times of several seconds would make it unusable.
The team plans to launch a redesigned website and updated tools for developers in the next two to three weeks. Their plan focuses first on making Toncoin faster and cheaper to use, then on providing better tools for developers. This approach prioritizes improvements that will attract new users before focusing on tools for those building on the network.
The Volume Pattern Before the Announcement
The CryptoQuant Spot Volume Bubble Map for TON indicates that the highest trading activity over the past month happened between $1.30 and $1.35 – the price level where TON remained stable for five days leading up to a recent announcement. On May 5th, the map showed significant buying pressure (‘Heating’) at $1.7786, with a trading volume of 32.972 million.
The biggest clue on the chart is a large amount of buying activity between $1.30 and $1.35. This shows a lot of purchases happening at the lowest price before any news was released. The price stayed flat for five days while this buying built up, and then, after the announcement, the price jumped up 40%.
This trend shows investors are strategically building positions at lower prices, rather than rushing to buy when prices are already high. Current data from May 5th indicates continued trading activity at elevated levels, but hasn’t yet reached the point of being overbought – a condition that often signals a potential price drop.
The 2018 Vision and What Was Lost Between Then and Now
Telegram is now taking direct control of its blockchain technology, returning to the original plan it had back in 2018. Initially, Telegram raised $1.7 billion to combine a blockchain with its messaging app. However, a 2020 legal agreement with the SEC required Telegram to step back, which led to the formation of the independent TON Foundation to continue the project.
From 2020 to 2025, the TON Foundation successfully developed a working blockchain and surrounding ecosystem, though Telegram wasn’t directly running its operations. The issue was that Telegram’s app and the TON blockchain were managed by different organizations, despite having common goals. They were separate entities with independent leadership.
Durov’s recent announcement signifies the final stage of a project that was halted in 2020 due to legal issues. Telegram now taking control of validation and operations isn’t a new beginning, but a continuation of that original work, now operating within a different legal framework.
Overbought at $1.888, But the Structural Change Does Not Expire
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing high values on both the 1-hour and longer-term charts – 75.68 and 78.72 respectively – indicating the asset is overbought. This level of overbought conditions is common after a significant price jump, like the 40% increase seen in the last 24 hours following a recent announcement. The key now is whether the reason for this price increase is strong enough to keep the price high, or if the RSI suggests a temporary dip before the price continues to rise.
The 50-day moving average is at $1.501, the 100-day at $1.417, and the 200-day at $1.365. The current price of $1.888 is considerably above the 50-day moving average – by $0.387. This gap will likely close either through a price decrease or the moving average increasing, but either way doesn’t change the overall positive trend. Both scenarios simply mean the market has been rising faster than these averages have been able to reflect.
The opposing view is simple: a large, one-day price jump like this often leads to people selling to lock in profits. Many traders bought the asset when it was between $1.30 and $1.35, and they’ve now seen a 40% increase in value. It makes sense for them to sell some of their holdings at these higher prices, which could cause the price to drop, as the RSI indicator suggests.
The main factor preventing a negative outlook is that the recent fundamental shift is unlikely to be undone quickly. Telegram’s increased role in running TON isn’t just a plan for the future – it’s an immediate change to how the network is governed. This new governance structure will remain in place even if the price of TON decreases.
The price of TON staying above $1.50 at the end of each day is a positive sign. This level is about a 12% drop from its current price and acts as a key support level after a recent increase. If the price remains above $1.50, it suggests that the $1.30 to $1.35 range, where the price previously stabilized, is now a solid foundation for future price movement.
If the stock price of TON falls below $1.50 and returns to its previous range of $1.30 to $1.35, it would suggest the initial announcement was already factored into the high price, and the recent changes haven’t yet created lasting demand at these higher levels.
Telegram now fully owns TON, resulting in lower transaction fees and faster processing speeds. With Telegram’s massive 950 million user base already using the app, the recent 37% price increase related to this announcement suggests initial market reaction. However, whether the market accurately predicted the impact will be determined by the price staying above $1.50 at the end of the day.
This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.
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2026-05-05 15:43