As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of market observation under my belt, I find myself intrigued by the current Bitcoin landscape. The consolidation trend and the uncertainty it breeds are reminiscent of the dot-com bubble days, where I learned the hard way that patience is indeed a virtue in the world of finance.
Over the weekend, I observed a prolonged consolidation in Bitcoin‘s price, registering a slight 0.16% increase. The neutral candle formation over the past few days has stirred uncertainty among crypto investors like myself, affecting not just Bitcoin but also the altcoin market. This uncertainty could be due to a substantial outflow from BTC ETFs and some whale selling. The question is: Can we, the buyers, offset this trend?
Bitcoin Price to Rebound Amid Flag Formation
This week, Bitcoin’s price experienced a significant decrease from around $65,000 to $58,900, representing a fall of approximately 9.5%. This drop has caused the price to dip below its 200-day Exponential Moving Average, which means sellers now have more control over the asset.
Furthermore, it’s been reported by Lookonchain that a significant Bitcoin holder or institution has transferred approximately 2,364 BTC (equivalent to around $140 Million) into Binance. Usually, when these large holders sell their Bitcoin, it can fuel a negative market sentiment.
A whale/institution deposited 2,364 $BTC($140M) into #Binance 4 hours ago.
Address:
3NVeXmBcmXsBSvXgpQuXWuGg4pDBDEWEok
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 31, 2024
If the bearish trend continues, the Bitcoin price might drop by about 15% to hit the combined support levels around $50,000 and follow the trendline of the flag pattern. This popular bullish reversal pattern often triggers a brief move against the overall trend for buyers to regain their bullish momentum before the uptrend resumes.
As long as the Bitcoin chart pattern remains unbroken, its price projection continues to show a tendency leaning towards a sideways-to-uptrend.
Here’s Why BTC Bull Market Still Has Room to Run
According to a study by Axel Adler Jr., the ongoing Bitcoin bull market could continue growing for some time before hitting its maximum point. On average, Bitcoin bull markets last about 796 days, whereas bear markets usually persist for approximately 337 days. In simpler terms, based on past trends, this Bitcoin bull run might still have more days to go.
The information suggests that although the current bull run has delivered considerable increases, it hasn’t yet outlasted the typical length of previous bull market phases. Consequently, the continuing downtrend in Bitcoin’s price might present potential purchasers with a chance to amass coins at a reduced cost.
History does not have to repeat itself, but statistics suggest otherwise:
On average, a bull market lasts 796 days.
On average, a bear market lasts 337 days.The current bull cycle has been going on for 628 days, which hasn’t even reached the average yet.
— Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 31, 2024
Based on current support levels, the BTC price might bounce back from around $53,500 or $50,000, fueling the next phase of growth and potentially exceeding the resistance set by the flag pattern. An upward breakout above the trendline at $66,000 could spark a rally, taking the price up to around $83,000.
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2024-08-31 18:22