Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Nothing More Than a Wistful Dream? đŸ˜±

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In the whimsical realm of cryptocurrency, theories swirl and twirl like dervishes on a delightful spring day, and of late, one particular theory has taken on a life of its own: the notion that Bitcoin’s infamous four-year cycle may have, in fact, run its splendid course. The devoted disciples of the “cycle is dead” school of thought wield their arguments with gusto, pointing to the glorious rise of institutional participation, the glittering emergence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the alluring prospect of clearer regulations, and a robust accumulation of bitcoin by governments and esteemed corporations – all a veritable buffet for the market’s voracious appetite.

End of an Era? Crypto Aficionados Proclaim Bitcoin’s Fabled Cycle ‘Dead’

From the moment Bitcoin first graced the digital landscape, its beloved token has danced to a familiar four-year waltz, orchestrated by the halving – the event that slices mining rewards in two every four years. This enchanting procedure has traditionally heralded a cavalcade of events: a euphoric bull run, a heart-wrenching descent into bear market melancholy, followed by a slow but tantalizing rebound, all in preparation for the next BTC halving. Historically, this cycle has elevated Bitcoin’s price on a jubilant rise post-halving, only for it to plummet at a dizzying pace. Yet this time, many brave souls harbor doubts that history will repeat itself. Cue the dramatic music! đŸŽ¶

Matthew Hougan, the chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management (a title from which one might expect nothing less than profound revelations), told the ever-enthusiastic CNBC earlier this week that he suspects the cycle has met its untimely demise. “It’s not officially over until we bear witness to some glimmer of positive returns in 2026. But I daresay we shall, so let us be audaciously speculative: I believe the four-year cycle has bid us adieu,” Hougan opined. The clamor has even spilled onto the hallowed grounds of social platforms such as Reddit and X. On X, the account Simplifying Stocks, CPA proclaimed, “Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is dead. Pray tell, why?”

The X account was quick to offer its own answer:

“ETFs: buyers galore. Retail: gobbling it up. Institutions: greedy as ever. Treasury companies: piling on. Governments: joining the fray. 401k: en route to the moon. Retirement funds: don’t be late to the party. Violently HIGHER.”

A growing cacophony of influencers, analysts, and media mavens profess that the cycle, dear friends, is but a relic of a bygone era. They trumpet Bitcoin’s transformation into a mainstream institutional darling. While a few dissenting voices linger in the shadows, a multitude brandishes their data and reasoned arguments like swords in a grand duel. Some predict a “prolonged bear market” is still light-years away, as others confidently declare, “We are destined to sail through Q2/Q4 2026, contingent upon the whims of global liquidity.”

Yet, lo and behold, the irrepressible voice of the X account known as Crypto Dad dares to defy the popular belief that the four-year cycle has met its untimely end due to institutional adoption.

In a meticulously crafted post, Crypto Dad asserts that the cycle is not merely a creature of halving events, as many would have us believe, but is intricately intertwined with the grand tapestry of global liquidity cycles – a rhythm that dances to a four- to five-year beat and was spectacularly reset by the wonderful upheaval of the 2008 financial crisis. According to this enlightening missive, Bitcoin’s historic price peaks have waltzed in harmony with surges in global liquidity, not merely due to halvings, invoking the great quantitative easing epochs of “QE1-QE3, ZIRP” that sparked the 2009-2013 bull run, along with subsequent QE spillovers onto 2014-2017, and the pandemic-fueled QE for 2018-2021.

In grand style, the post concludes with:

“The Halving is the spark. Global liquidity is the oxygen. The four-year rhythm did not emerge from a mere line of code; it was birthed in the post-2008 monetary renaissance. To merely observe the halving is to tragically miss the true clock of existence.”

On July 23, the ever-entertaining crypto influencer Marty Party beseeched his 226,000 admirers on X, “Bitcoin Basics 2025-The four-year cycle is but a ghost of past glories. The 2020 bear market was an orchestration by the previous government to thwart bitcoin. Alas, it fell flat. Bitcoin is destined to embrace fiat until at least 2050. The new regime is in on the plan. The machinery is pivoting to hard money. Rejoice! This is a splendid development that will rectify all our woes!”

This ongoing kerfuffle illustrates more than mere clashing data points – it underscores a seismic shift in interpretation regarding Bitcoin’s future. With narratives now molded as much by macroeconomic policy as by the intricate details of blockchain mechanics, the community is faced with a compelling inquiry: shall we evolve in tune with new signals, or cling to the comforting fantasies of a bygone era?

As debates rage on like a tempestuous storm, the market itself is poised to make the final declaration. Whether swayed by the mighty tides of liquidity, the dazzling sparks of halving events, or the embrace of fresh layers of adoption, Bitcoin’s future price fluctuations in the upcoming years will undoubtedly yell louder than any frail theory. Until the curtain rises once more, traders and analysts find themselves in a state of suspense, eagerly awaiting the confirmation that one of crypto’s most venerable traditions has indeed reached its dewy conclusion.

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2025-08-11 22:31