Ethereum on the Brink of Historic Losing Streak – Can It Recover or Will It Just Keep Falling?

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Ethereum‘s ‘slow burn’ continues, but don’t worry, there’s still a chance for drama. Will it implode or just quietly fade out? Stay tuned.

So, here we are, folks. Ethereum is approaching a landmark moment in its history: the possibility of six consecutive months in the red. Yes, you heard it right. Six! It’s not quite 2018’s seven-month streak of misery, but it’s close enough to get the crypto pundits into a frenzy. And let’s be real, if Ethereum pulls this off, it might just need a therapist.

Open Interest Collapse: Ethereum’s Leveraged Hangover Is Real

According to Coinglass, January saw a 17.52% dip, February followed up with a 19.81% plunge, and now March? It’s trying to pull itself together, but it might not make it. If it closes negative, Ethereum will find itself in some extremely rare territory. And we’re not talking about the good kind of rare. Historically, March likes to post a 17.24% gain. So yeah, this would be a solid “ugh” moment for Ethereum’s March performance.

📉 Monthly Close Watch

Ethereum is on track to print its 6th consecutive monthly red candle.

The longest streak ever recorded was 7 straight red months back in 2018.

– Dariusz Kowalczyk (@darekinvest)

Now, let’s take a trip down memory lane to 2018. The year Ethereum lost its mind after the ICO bubble burst. We’re talking losses of 20% to 50% in a single month, crazy volatility, and a much smaller derivatives market. It was a party, but one that no one remembers fondly. Fast forward to now, and the drawdown is still happening, but it’s more “meh” than “OMG.” It’s like watching a slow-motion car crash-you’re kind of numb to it at this point.

Meanwhile, open interest hit a high of $30 billion during the 2025 rally. Now? We’re looking at $11.6 billion. That’s a 60% to 65% contraction. So yeah, there’s a massive deleveraging cycle happening. It’s not a mild correction, it’s a full-on reality check.

Image Source: CryptoQuant

And here’s the kicker: open interest isn’t falling off a cliff anymore. No, it’s just sort of… holding steady. The leverage crowding is gone, leaving us with a nice, compressed position. It’s like watching the last guest leave the party. You’re still there, but no one’s having fun.

Oh, and those funding rates? They’ve flipped. In January, it was all positive and hopeful. Now? Negative. We’re at -0.0043. That means shorts are paying longs. And if that doesn’t scream “downward trend,” I don’t know what does.

Image Source: CryptoQuant

Negative funding during compressed open interest periods is like asking for a short squeeze or a random relief rally to pop up. It could happen, but no one’s holding their breath. In 2018, weak funding was a sign of demand collapse. Now, it’s just a sign that people might start getting a little too excited and then-poof!-fall back into reality.

Ethereum ETFs: Outflows, Shorts, and the Saga Continues

Now, let’s talk about institutional players. Ethereum ETFs have seen about $369.8 million in monthly outflows. Yes, you read that right. Institutional exposure is dwindling, which is like watching someone slowly pack up their bags while the party’s just getting started. But don’t worry, institutions are just “de-risking.” It’s not a full exit, it’s more of a cautious shuffle.

Image Source: SoSoValue

While this may seem like a snooze fest, keep an eye on those netflows. Coins are flowing onto exchanges like they’ve got something to prove, but not in panic mode. It’s more like a steady, controlled distribution. If you were expecting an explosive, dramatic crash, well… try again. This is a slow, dignified exit.

Image Source: CryptoQuant

The selling here isn’t chaotic. It’s… calm. No 30% to 40% collapse like 2018. This isn’t an emergency. It’s more like watching paint dry, but with some interesting market dynamics at play.

Looking ahead, we’ll need more ETF outflows, short positioning, and rising open interest to really see things unravel. If that happens? Oh, buckle up. A short squeeze might be in the cards, and things could get bumpy. But a true capitulation? Well, that’s going to need a lot more fireworks.

So, six red months in a row? Statistically rare, yes. And no, it doesn’t look like the chaos of 2018. Ethereum is caught somewhere between exhaustion and “please don’t make me do this again.” The next few weeks will tell if it can finally pull itself together or if we’re in for more of the same.

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2026-03-01 16:12