Bitcoin’s Balancing Act: Will It Tumble or Triumph?

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What to know:

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET, unless the clock decides otherwise)

Ah, Bitcoin, that fickle darling of the digital realm, has perched itself above $70,000 like a crow on a wobbly branch. Its resilience is as baffling as a nose in the middle of a face-why is it there? Who knows! Yet, here it stands, defiant amidst the selloff that saw it plummet from $75,000, as if it had tripped over its own shoelaces.

The world, meanwhile, has been in a tizzy. The conflict in Iran has escalated, sending energy markets into a frenzy, while the U.S. PPI print arrived hotter than a samovar on a summer day. Traditional havens like gold and silver took a nosedive, and Brent crude soared above $110 a barrel, as if it had sprouted wings. The Fed, ever the party pooper, held rates steady but with a hawkish glint in its eye, dampening rate-cut dreams like a bucket of cold water at a picnic.

André Dragosch, the sage of Bitwise, opines that Bitcoin sits at the crossroads of two titanic forces-inflation expectations and tighter financial conditions. It’s like a tightrope walker juggling flaming torches, except the torches are macroeconomic indicators. Dragosch suggests Bitcoin may already be tipping in its favor, though whether it’s a graceful tilt or a comical tumble remains to be seen.

“Bitcoin is less interest rate-sensitive than gold,” he declares, as if explaining why a goose is less likely to wear a hat. “It’s also acting as the canary in the macro coal mine,” he adds, though one wonders if the canary is singing or simply gasping for air.

Looking ahead, the key catalyst will be the resolution of the Middle East conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the crypto space continues its march toward adoption, though whether it’s a triumphant parade or a chaotic stampede is anyone’s guess. Stay alert, or don’t-what’s the worst that could happen?

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”. Or don’t. It’s your life.

  • Crypto
    • Nothing scheduled. Just like my social calendar.
  • Macro
    • March 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada PPI YoY (Prev. 5.4%); MoM (Prev. 2.7%). Because who doesn’t love a good PPI report?
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • March 20: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.01. A name so silly, it’s almost profound.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”. Or don’t. It’s your life.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”. Or don’t. It’s your life.

  • Nothing scheduled. Just like my social calendar.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.29% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $70,608.19 (24hrs: +0.69%). Steady as a Gogol protagonist’s nerves.
  • ETH is down 0.55% at $2,148.07 (24hrs: -1.14%). Oh, Ethereum, you dramatic soul.
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.34% at 2,044.85 (24hrs: unchanged). As exciting as a cup of lukewarm tea.
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.76%. Thrilling.
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.0020% (-2.1703% annualized) on Binance. Yawn.

  • DXY is down 0.38% at 99.70. The dollar, ever the wallflower.
  • Gold futures are up 1.58% at $4,673.60. Gold, the eternal show-off.
  • Silver futures are up 1.75% at $72.14. Silver, trying to keep up with its shinier cousin.
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 3.38% at 53,372.53. Ouch.
  • Hang Seng closed down 0.88% at 25,277.32. A mere stumble.
  • FTSE 100 is down 2.16% at 10,082.61. The British stiff upper lip in action.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.71% at 5,638.54. Europe, ever the drama queen.
  • DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.44% at 46,021.43. A gentle decline, like a leaf falling in autumn.
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.27% at 6,606.49. Barely a blip.
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.28% at 22,090.69. Tech, taking a breather.
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.42% at 31,854.98. Canada, feeling the chill.
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.22% at 3,466.80. A small victory.
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.28%. Bonds, the unsung heroes.
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.52% at 6,625.50. Futures, always looking ahead, even when they’d rather not.
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.68% at 24,412.50. Tech futures, slightly less optimistic.
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.43% at 46,140.00. The Dow, taking a nap.

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.90% (0.18%). Bitcoin, the alpha in a room full of betas.
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03043 (-0.49%). Ethereum, trying to keep up.
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 925 EH/s. Impressive, if you’re into that sort of thing.
  • Hashprice (spot): $30.68. A bargain, or so they say.
  • Total fees: 2.95 BTC / $206,875. Fees, the bane of every crypto enthusiast’s existence.
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 117,190 BTC. Futures, the crystal ball of the crypto world.
  • BTC priced in gold: 15.2 oz. Bitcoin, the digital gold, or so they claim.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.72%. A David and Goliath story, if David were a line of code.

Technical Analysis

  • BTC/SPX may be showing signs of bottoming out – with RSI bouncing off from oversold levels and the line maintaining its trend. Or it might just be taking a nap.
  • The ratio is currently below the 50-week exponential moving average, which implies more range-bound performance until we see a breakout above the average. In other words, don’t hold your breath.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $202.91 (+0.31%), -0.45% at $201.99 in pre-market. Coinbase, the steady hand in a chaotic sea.
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $128.33 (-3.40%), -2.20% at $125.51. Circle, spinning a bit too fast.
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.05 (-2.46%), -0.71% at $20.90. Galaxy, a bit dimmer today.
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.22 (+3.36%), -0.33% at $9.19. MARA, the marathon runner of crypto.
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.14 (+0.28%), +0.28% at $14.18. Riot, barely making a sound.
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.48 (+0.80%). Core, holding its ground.
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.83 (-0.51%), -0.31% at $9.80. CleanSpark, slightly tarnished.
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.73 (-4.57%). Exodus, moving in the wrong direction.
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.10 (+0.00%). WGMI, neither here nor there.
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.60 (+3.45%), -0.98% at $39.21. Bullish, but not too bullish.

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.24 (-1.65%), +0.54% at $138.99. Strategy, strategizing its way back up.
  • Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.26 (+2.24%), +0.49% at $10.31. Strive, striving for greatness.
  • SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.68 (-2.41%), +1.04% at $7.76. SharpLink, slightly less sharp today.
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.07 (+0.00%), +1.87% at $1.09. Upexi, inching upward.
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17 (-0.85%). Lite, a bit lighter today.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$90.2 million. Money, flowing out like a leaky faucet.
  • Cumulative net flows: $56.26 billion. Still a mountain of cash, though.
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million. Bitcoin, the hoarder of the crypto world.

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$136.4 million. Ethereum, feeling the pinch.
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.8 billion. Not too shabby, all things considered.
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.76 million. Ethereum, the runner-up in the hoarding contest.

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2026-03-20 14:42