Is Now the Time to Invest in SpaceX’s Record-Breaking IPO? Find Out!

by

SpaceX Eyes the Biggest IPO Ever: When Should You Actually Buy In?

SpaceX is expected to submit paperwork for its initial public offering (IPO) to regulators as soon as this week. The company is aiming to be publicly listed by June 2026, and the offering could generate more than $75 billion.

Renaissance Capital data suggests this amount is more than all the money raised by US initial public offerings in 2025 combined – exceeding $44 billion.

The Largest IPO in History Takes Shape

SpaceX recently submitted a private filing related to its planned merger with xAI, Elon Musk’s AI company. The merger, expected in February 2026, would combine the two companies in an all-stock deal, valuing the new entity at around $1.25 trillion—making it the most valuable company before it offers shares to the public.

SpaceX has built a complete system that includes powerful Starship rockets, the Starlink satellite internet service with over 9 million users, and the Grok AI models developed by xAI.

Last year, Starlink brought in over $10 billion for the company. Experts predict that revenue could reach between $15.9 billion and $24 billion by 2026.

According to a forecast by Quilty Space, Starlink is projected to generate $15.9 billion in revenue by 2026. Key highlights of the forecast include 8.2 million subscribers by the end of 2025, $10.3 billion in consumer revenue by 2026, a nearly tenfold increase in aviation revenue, and 130,000 maritime installations by 2026. These projections are based on analysis by Quilty Space analysts.

— Brian Basson (@BassonBrain) September 11, 2025

According to Bloomberg, SpaceX’s upcoming filing could make it the first of several very large initial public offerings (IPOs) this year. Anthropic and OpenAI are also anticipated to go public, potentially following SpaceX.

Why Retail Investors Should Resist the FOMO

Despite the excitement, several risk factors suggest day-one buyers face an unfavorable setup.

  • At a targeted valuation between $1.25 trillion and $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would trade at roughly 80 to 100 times trailing revenue.

Starlink’s varying price points reflect not only its current expansion, but also its future, more speculative plans, such as data centers in orbit and a base on the moon.

  • Most retail investors will not receive shares at the offer price.

Instead of buying right away, investors often waited to purchase shares on the open market after the initial price increase expected on the first day. Historically, highly anticipated IPOs tend to jump in price when trading begins, as early investors quickly sell their shares for a profit, but then the price usually drops over the following weeks.

  • Lock-up expiration, typically 180 days after listing, presents another headwind.

People who invested early on, when the company was valued between $200 billion and $800 billion, are likely to make a significant profit. Historically, when early investors start selling their shares after a company goes public, it can sometimes lower the stock’s performance.

The Smarter Entry May Come Later

Analysts broadly recommend patience over day-one purchases for this listing.

According to Motley Fool analyst Brett Schafer, SpaceX stock currently seems overpriced, and he’s recommending investors avoid rushing to buy it when it becomes publicly available.

I’ve been reading about SpaceX, and it looks like a really promising company with a lot of potential. But according to The Motley Fool, I don’t need to rush out and buy the stock the second it becomes available. It’s good advice – no need to jump in right at the IPO.

Instead of rushing to buy a stock right after its initial public offering (IPO) when prices are high, a better approach might be to invest gradually over time, especially if the price drops after the IPO. This can potentially lead to a better balance between risk and potential reward.

Keep an eye on these key developments: SpaceX successfully reusing Starship rockets frequently, increasing the profit margin for Starlink, and making headway on building computers that can operate in space.

SpaceX continues to be one of the most promising companies in the tech world. However, when the company’s stock first becomes available, the price will likely be high, reflecting both years of positive expectations and the influence of Elon Musk’s personal brand.

For most investors, the second chance may offer better odds than the first.

Read More

2026-03-25 08:32