Bitcoin on the Brink of $80K: Derivatives Warn of Bigger Selloff

Markets

What to know:

Bitcoin’s price has risen slightly, but it might face challenges soon. It’s only gone up by less than half a percent since midnight UTC, and any significant push towards $80,000 could meet resistance.

According to Luke Deans, a researcher at Bitwise, many recent Bitcoin buyers purchased around the current price. If the price goes up, they might sell to realize a profit, which could limit further price increases.

A new challenge could arise with the upcoming U.S. March PCE inflation report, especially as oil prices continue to cause concern for investors. Crude oil prices have jumped to around $110 a barrel, and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are making energy markets unstable.

The Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday to keep interest rates unchanged is also impacting the market. Notably, there was significant disagreement within the Fed, with four officials dissenting – the most in over three decades. One governor argued for lowering rates, while three regional presidents disagreed with the Fed’s indication that it might cut rates again in the future.

According to Deans, most altcoins still closely follow Bitcoin’s price movements, with a very strong correlation – around 97% over the past 180 days, and a beta near 99%. Essentially, these tokens are currently behaving much like Bitcoin trades with added leverage.

According to Deans, several factors that usually signal increased market instability are starting to emerge. Trading volume is low, and while some investors are taking profits and others are cutting losses, these actions are canceling each other out, suggesting no strong consensus on where the market is headed.

In these environments, he said, price moves are often needed to unlock new liquidity.

Derivatives positioning

• Market-wide, futures open interest (OI) has dropped over 2% to $119 billion in 24 hours. Trading volumes, however, have increased 26% to $208 billion. The combination indicates that positions are being closed and capital is fleeing the market, a sign of risk aversion.
• Over $500 million in leveraged bets have been liquidated by exchanges, of which most are longs, or bullish positions. The market weakness amid rising bond yields has clearly caught bulls off guard.
• OI has dropped 2% in bitcoin futures and and 1.7% in ether. Similar declines are seen across most majors, except DOGE, whose OI still hovers at six-month highs.
• With the exception of XMR, XLM, TRX and CC, most coins, including the two largest, have seen sellers hit bids more than buyers lifting offers, leaving the 24-hour cumulative volume delta in the negative. In short, sellers are being more aggressive, which suggests potential for deeper price declines.
• Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has dropped to 41%, extending the slide from the February high of 97%. Right now, the index is at its lowest since Jan. 29. Once again, this is telling a tale of a market that’s become desensitized to adverse macro developments such as rising bond yields and elevated oil prices. Ether’s volatility index shows a similar pattern.
• On Deribit, BTC and ETH protective puts remain pricier relative to calls. The large concentration of open interest in bitcoin’s $80,000 call has created long (positive) gamma dynamics, suggesting that market makers may sell rallies into and above that level to hedge their books. This could slow potential upswings.
• Bitcoin’s options term structure shows less near-term stress, with traders pricing more uncertainty further out rather than in the immediate future.
• Block flows featured a large BTC put spread involving strikes $72,000 and $65,000, according to Amberdata. The strategy shows expectations for a renewed price drop to $65,000 or lower.

Token talk

• Memecoin launchpad Pump.fun is adding a way for creators to send fees to charities, as its PUMP token trades lower following a major change to its revenue policy.
• The feature, called Charity Coins, lets coin administrators pick a verified charity inside Pump.fun’s creator fee settings. The platform leveraging it, Donate.gg, supports more than 10,000 charities.
• The goal is to reduce disputes between traders and coin admins when a token forms around a charitable cause. The platform’s current main fundraiser is currently at $12,800 for St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.
• Pump.fun also said it will stop using all revenue to buy and burn PUMP. Instead, it will now send 50% of future net revenue to automatic buybacks and burns for one year, while keeping the rest for hiring, product work, marketing and possible deals.
• The changes come during a rough stretch for PUMP. The token is down more than 7% over the past 24 hours, compared with a 2.2% drop in the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index.

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2026-04-30 14:06