Altseason Alert: Three Key Signals Flash as Index Nears Confirmation Threshold

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Three Altseason Signals Flash With the Index Halfway to Confirmed

Key Takeaways

  • BTC dominance MACD crossover signals momentum shift.
  • Altcoin volume 30-day average crossed above 365-day baseline.
  • Altcoin Season Index reading at 50, threshold is 75.
  • MVRV and P/L Margin below previous cycle peaks.
  • Long-term holders not selling at current levels.
  • SOL and SUI posting double-digit gains while ETH holds.
  • Below-peak MVRV suggests Bitcoin cycle not yet complete.

What the Signals Are Saying

During the first six months of 2026, Bitcoin’s share of the cryptocurrency market rose to nearly 60%, boosted by money flowing into spot ETFs, increased buying from institutions, and general economic uncertainty that led investors to favor the most established asset. However, this upward trend is now beginning to show signs of weakening.

CryptoQuant’s CryptoOnchain has spotted a concerning pattern: a ‘bearish MACD crossover’ on the Bitcoin Dominance chart, suggesting Bitcoin’s market share might stop growing. At the same time, trading volume for altcoins is increasing. Specifically, the 30-day average volume of altcoin trades has surpassed the 365-day average on major exchanges. Historically, in 2021, similar increases in altcoin volume often preceded significant price surges for altcoins.

Recent price movements show money is starting to flow beyond Bitcoin. Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) have seen significant gains recently, while Ethereum (ETH) has stayed fairly steady, indicating investors are moving towards riskier cryptocurrencies. Over the past three months, the total value of altcoins has increased from around $960 billion to nearly $1.1 trillion, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

What the Index Actually Shows

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index helps determine if money is flowing into altcoins beyond just Bitcoin. Currently, the index is at 50. An index above 75 signals a clear ‘altcoin season,’ while a reading below 25 indicates a ‘Bitcoin season.’ At 50, the market is balanced – it’s neither strongly favoring Bitcoin nor altcoins. The index briefly peaked near 100 in March, then dropped, spent most of April low, and has since risen back to 50 as of early May.

While seeing prices bounce back is good, a significant and sustained increase is what really counts. Certain indicators, like trading volume and market shifts, suggest positive momentum. The Altcoin Season Index tells us if most altcoins are actually doing better than Bitcoin, but so far, the results aren’t conclusive. The early signs are encouraging, but we haven’t seen definitive proof of a trend yet.

The On-Chain Contradiction

In my research, I’ve been looking at on-chain data from CryptoOnchain, and something interesting stands out. While many are talking about an ‘altseason,’ certain metrics suggest we’re still quite early in this bull market. Specifically, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Profit/Loss Margin haven’t reached the highs we saw in previous cycles, and long-term holders aren’t really taking profits. This actually supports the idea that the market has more room to run, and it explains why the situation seems a bit contradictory at first glance.

Bitcoin needs to finish, or almost finish, its price cycle before altcoins can consistently outperform it. Looking at 2017 and 2021, altcoins really took off *after* Bitcoin had already made its biggest gains, and investors started looking for higher profits elsewhere. Current data suggests Bitcoin hasn’t reached that point yet. Historically, if altcoins start rising significantly *before* Bitcoin peaks, those gains tend to be quick bursts, not the long-lasting ‘altseason’ often predicted. The evidence suggests an altseason is likely, but the data doesn’t tell us exactly how long it will last.

The Failed Setups the History Skips

CryptoOnchain is right to point to 2017 and 2021 as examples, as those were the clearest cases of this happening. However, since 2021, Bitcoin’s dominance has signaled potential shifts multiple times without actually leading to a lasting period of gains for alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins). Each time, Bitcoin regained strength and altcoins lost their initial gains. While the current situation is showing more promising signs – with increasing volume, a rising index, and some assets already moving – it resembles earlier attempts that ultimately failed between 2022 and 2025. The key difference between the successful periods of 2017 and 2021 and those failed attempts was how long the trend lasted and how widespread it was. We haven’t seen enough evidence yet to confirm that those factors are present this time.

Signals That Confirm or Cancel

If the Altcoin Season Index stays above 75 for the next month, and trading volume on centralized exchanges continues to show increasing interest in altcoins for at least three weeks, it would suggest a major, lasting change in how money is moving into the altcoin market – shifting from a short-term boost to a more significant, long-term trend.

If the Altcoin Season Index drops below 35 in the next two weeks, or if Bitcoin’s dominance rises above 60% on a weekly basis, it suggests altcoins won’t lead the next market move. This would repeat a pattern seen since 2022, meaning Bitcoin would likely take control of the market again.

There are three strong signs suggesting a shift in the market towards altcoins, marking the most significant indication of such a change since 2021. The Altcoin Season Index currently at 50 suggests this rotation is beginning, not that it’s already fully underway. These are two distinct phases, and the market is currently positioned in between them.

This article is just for informational purposes and shouldn’t be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t recommend any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

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2026-05-10 12:30