Bitcoin reached an 11-week high on Wednesday, briefly surpassing $78,400, after former US President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran. This news encouraged investment in both cryptocurrency and traditional stocks. Bitcoin’s price increased by as much as 3.6% in London trading, reaching its highest point since February 3rd, before settling around $78,000. Ether followed this trend, also increasing by up to 3.8% on Wednesday.
The recent market gains continue a trend that started earlier this week, as investors began to anticipate a possible resolution to the conflict before the ceasefire ended on Wednesday. The latest increase followed a post on Tuesday from Donald Trump’s social media account, stating that the US would delay planned military actions at the request of Pakistani negotiators, giving Iran more time to present a combined plan.
What Trump Actually Said
In a post on Truth Social, Trump described the delay in planned action as a result of divisions within the Iranian government. He stated that Iran’s leadership is deeply fractured and had requested a pause so they could come up with a united plan. Importantly, Trump also said the US military would maintain its blockade and stay prepared for action, indicating that the US would continue to apply pressure even during this temporary pause.
As an analyst, I’m noting a significant shift in messaging from earlier this week. Previously, Trump had signaled he wouldn’t support extending the ceasefire and even suggested an escalation of conflict if no deal was reached. Now, reports from Al Jazeera indicate the US is offering an open-ended extension, meaning they haven’t set a new deadline.
During a CNBC interview on Tuesday morning, Donald Trump stated that time was limited and characterized Iran as wanting conflict. This sharply contrasts with his position just 24 hours earlier, where he dismissed the possibility of a truce. This quick change in messaging over the past five weeks explains why cryptocurrency markets have been so reactive to news headlines instead of focusing on underlying economic factors.
How Crypto Markets Reacted
Bitcoin’s price has been fluctuating wildly for the past five weeks, mirroring the tensions between the US and Iran. Wednesday’s price changes continue this trend: the price quickly jumps up or down between $70,000 and $78,000 based on news about the diplomatic situation between the two countries.
In early April, the announcement of a two-week ceasefire on April 7th led to a large wave of crypto selling, totaling $657 million. Bitcoin’s price briefly surged to $78,000 on April 17th when Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz. However, this increase quickly reversed after Iran closed the waterway again and ended talks in Islamabad, causing Bitcoin’s price to fall back to around $74,000.
This recent activity comes alongside growing interest from institutional investors. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, just bought a significant amount of Bitcoin – 34,164 BTC worth about $2.54 billion – its largest purchase in over a year and a half. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $996 million in new investments last week, according to SoSoValue, indicating that institutional demand remains strong despite recent global uncertainties.
Oil prices moved in the opposite direction of expectations. After briefly rising above $100 a barrel on Tuesday when ceasefire talks seemed to fail, Brent crude fell to around $97.91, and WTI decreased by 0.95% to $88.82. Lower energy prices often benefit Bitcoin, as they can reduce concerns about inflation and increase the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates later this year. Analysts believe this connection – how events in the Middle East impact cryptocurrency – is a key factor to watch.
BTC Breaks Out of Six-Week Range
Looking at the 4-hour chart, I’m seeing a clear technical breakout for Bitcoin. We’ve finally moved beyond the trading range it’s been stuck in since the initial news of a ceasefire on April 7th. This is a significant move, as it suggests a potential shift in momentum.
Earlier this month, the shorter-term moving average (100-EMA) moved above the longer-term moving average (200-EMA), creating a ‘golden cross’ pattern on the 4-hour chart. This often signals that the price is likely to start moving upwards. The recent price increase also happened with higher trading volume, which strengthens the likelihood of this upward trend continuing.
Bitcoin is now approaching a price level where sellers have historically been very active. The $78,000 to $78,400 range has repeatedly stopped price increases since February. To confirm a sustained breakout higher, the price needs to close above $78,500 daily, otherwise it may fall back into its previous trading range.
Why the Rally Still Looks Fragile
Although Bitcoin’s price has recently increased, there are signs this growth might not last. Funding rates for Bitcoin futures have been negative for almost 46 days straight – a pattern not seen since the FTX crash in late 2022 – which means traders using leverage still largely expect prices to fall, even as regular buyers are driving prices up. While price increases fueled by regular purchases tend to be steadier, they can quickly reverse if the reason for the increase disappears.
Also, Bitcoin hasn’t kept pace with the recent rise in global stock markets. While the MSCI ACWI has been climbing for 11 days, Bitcoin is recovering more gradually from a low of around $74,000. This indicates that cryptocurrency is still more affected by negative global events than positive ones.
Importantly, this extended ceasefire isn’t a lasting peace agreement. The US Navy continues to blockade the region, Iran views this as a hostile act, and very few ships – only three commercial vessels – passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the day leading up to the announcement. If any of these issues worsen – like increased tensions in the Strait, Iran rejecting a proposal, or fighting resuming – it could quickly undo the current progress, just like what happened after talks in Islamabad failed in April. Back then, Bitcoin’s value dropped about 2% within hours of the announcement that no deal had been reached.
Increased selling from Bitcoin mining companies, combined with a decrease in mining difficulty, indicates that miners are still operating with thin profit margins. This means Bitcoin’s price may struggle to move much higher than the $76,000–$80,000 level without triggering further sales from these miners.
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2026-04-22 13:42