Will Bitcoin Recover or Crash to $40K Next? Analysts Can’t Agree

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Bitcoin is once again soaring, up a staggering 7% this week. But does this mean we’ve seen the worst, or is a plunge to $40K still on the horizon? Well, that entirely depends on whom you ask. The market, predictably, is as divided as ever.

The Signal Bitcoin Bulls Are Watching

Today, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, ever the eternal optimist, spotted something noteworthy. Bitcoin has hit a crucial resistance level, and though he’s not expecting an immediate breakout, he was bold enough to declare the short-term trend switch to be “the most vital trend switch we’ve seen since 10/10.” A bold statement, indeed.

Of course, October 10 was the last time the market had a notable directional shift, and van de Poppe believes this setup carries equal weight. He predicts consolidation before any meaningful move upward-because, naturally, things take time. No quick gains here, folks. Hold on to your hats!

Why Some Analysts Are Calling for $40K

Not everyone shares the same rose-tinted view of Bitcoin’s future. In fact, there are voices calling for doom and gloom-specifically, the notorious analyst @NoAlphaLimits. His warning? “$60K is NEXT. The bottom is $40-45K.” Well, that’s reassuring.

His thesis, as always, is rooted in geopolitical chaos. This time, it’s the ever-dramatic Iran conflict causing ripples through global markets.

BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO FREEFALL TO $40K – AND NOBODY IS PREPARED

People will thank me for this warning in a few weeks. Screenshot this.

$60K is NEXT. The bottom is $40-45K. Here’s why.

THE CASE FOR A CRASH TO $40K:

War with Iran is ESCALATING, not ending – Day…

– NoLimit Alpha (@NoAlphaLimits) March 5, 2026

In the meantime, QatarEnergy has declared force majeure, the Strait of Hormuz has become a battlefield, and oil prices are spiking. No big deal, right? Well, the rise in energy costs is pushing inflation expectations higher, leaving the Federal Reserve with limited options to lower rates. Ah, the beauty of central banking.

But it gets better-traditional safe-haven assets are cracking under the pressure. Silver took a nosedive of over 11% on Tuesday, while gold dropped more than 3%. Apparently, even the precious metals can’t catch a break. Investors seem to be fleeing risk everywhere, opting out of every market, not just crypto. Go figure.

The cherry on top? Analyst @NoAlphaLimits claims there’s a massive $2.3 billion in long positions trapped between $60K-$73K. And guess what? He insists it’s all about to be wiped out. Ouch.

What the Macro Picture Says

Meanwhile, blockchain advisor Anddy Lian takes a more grounded approach. His perspective: Bitcoin’s 89% correlation with the S&P 500 tells the real story here. In simpler terms, it’s just another macro beta trade, moving in sync with equities and rate expectations. So, you know, it’s all tied to global financial chaos, as usual.

The Fear and Greed Index has shifted from 19 to 29 in just 24 hours-pretty exciting, right? But don’t be fooled. It’s still deep in the “fear” zone, where Bitcoin loves to play. Lian’s key range to watch is $72,000-$74,000. As of today, Bitcoin is trading right in the middle of that range, so the next move is the one that will tell us if the bulls are finally waking up or if we’re on the brink of another crash.

Oh, and let’s not forget March 6’s Non-Farm Payrolls report-one piece of data that could change everything. Or, you know, nothing at all.

Bitcoin Crash 2026: What Happens Next?

In the midst of all the geopolitical chaos, Bitcoin’s next move is probably not going to be dictated by technical analysis. Sure, charts are cute, but the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and the Federal Reserve’s response to inflation are the things that matter right now. So much for technicals.

The NFP report, however, is a hard data point that could throw everything into disarray. It’s the kind of news that could shift the outlook in either direction-no pressure.

Stay tuned to Coinpedia for all your crypto market updates. Or don’t, if you’d rather live in blissful ignorance.

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2026-03-05 13:51